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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2017 12:36:03 GMT -5
(I wish we had a bit more space for thread titles. I suspect that would cost $$$, though.)
Angela Merkel threatens to restrict EU single market access unless Theresa May accepts free movementI do not envy May -- this is one hell of a wasps nest to inherit If May backs off on free movement to gain access to the single market, it will infuriate Brexit supporters. I think that was one of their biggest gripes with the EU. I don't see how Merkel and the EU can back off on their stance -- allowing the UK to cherry pick benefits while sidestepping obligations could well lead to the exodus of other countries from the EU. If May says "to hell with it, we don't need access to the market", it will suck for the UK's economy, at least for a good while. Meanwhile, the pound keeps sinking. I really haven't the foggiest idea how this is going to play out over the next year or so. My best guess is that May backs off on the free movement thing, but I wouldn't place any bets on it. Guesses?
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Post by robeiae on Jan 9, 2017 18:51:27 GMT -5
There's still too much financial activity in London for Merkel to pretend she's in the catbird's seat. She's not. The EU is not.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2017 19:06:13 GMT -5
No, I agree Merkel's not in a great position, either. That's why I'm wondering how it can end. Merkel and May are both in a position they'll find hard to back away from. I think, though, that Merkel might lose more by granting concessions to the UK on free movement than by sticking to her guns. More countries are likely to eye the exit if they think they can have the benefits of EU membersip without the parts they don't like. I really don't see how she can back down.
I could be wrong. It's happened before.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 9, 2017 19:12:51 GMT -5
Well, the EU--as constructed--has always been more beneficial to some nations than others. It can't help but be that way, really. Germany is a big country, with a lot of resources, a large population, and tons of industry. It can play the long game better than other advanced nations in the EU. And that is, I think, always going to be a problem. England--not being part of continental Europe and having established special rules prior to Brexit--was always a potential jumper. But others are there, as well, especially if Italy keeps going in the wrong direction.
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