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Post by mikey on Dec 27, 2018 15:15:04 GMT -5
I think it's just as likely that the market is reacting to the mid-term elections. Hopefully the new congress won't wreck too much havoc in the next two years.
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Post by prozyan on Dec 27, 2018 15:22:49 GMT -5
I've said before, the markets and Presidents really have little to do with each other. Even the current trade issues shouldn't be having this much effect.
Market turmoil is pretty much all due to the Fed normalizing interest rates. With the debt most corporations carry, even the relatively small 1/4 point hikes are crushing.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2018 16:54:35 GMT -5
I've said before, the markets and Presidents really have little to do with each other. Even the current trade issues shouldn't be having this much effect. Market turmoil is pretty much all due to the Fed normalizing interest rates. With the debt most corporations carry, even the relatively small 1/4 point hikes are crushing. As a rule, I agree with your first sentence, and I agree that your second and third sentence are certainly a big factor. But. Investors hate uncertainty. Right now, I think there's little else, and it's not just about rates. We've never had (at least since we've had a stock market), a president as volatile as this one, with an administration as incompetent as Trump's. That batshit phone call by Mnuchin has a lot to do with the Christmas Crash -- I don't think there's any question about it. I can say that everyone I know in the market right now is petrified. We don't know what he's going to do with regard to tariffs, etc.--it's hard to plan and do things intelligently when a sudden whim of the president -- a tariff, a tweet, a stupid vendetta -- could send a blue-chip crashing. Speaking as an invester, Trump scares me a shitload more than rate changes. I know how to deal with normal market variations. But right now, I feel like I'm strapped into the back seat of a car driven by a drunk driver. Normally, I think presidential policies have long-term effects on the economy and the market, but not so much short term ones. And surely a lot of other factors play in and are typically more important. But this president and administration is so erratic I think they ARE having shorter-term effects -- the massive uncertainty is leading to more volatility than I think we'd be seeing otherwise. E.g,. the dumbass Sunday night panicked phone call from Mnuchins to banks. Absolutely, that rocked the markets, and it's what happens when you appoint dumbasses. Mattis leaving sure as hell wasn't reassuring. We're not just seeing a downward trend. The market looks drunk. The volatility we've been seeing is not normal. But then, neither is our president.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2019 13:48:00 GMT -5
Are we leaving Syria right now?
Are we leaving Syria at all?
Has ISIS been defeated, as Trump claimed?
Does any of that even matter to Trump and the GOP?
Part of me wonders whether this wasn't all merely a deliberate game to force Mattis out. Most of me thinks Trump and his goons are too stupid for that, and it was all just one piece of random idiocy after another. Nevertheless, Mattis is out.
The "I want out of Syria" people -- are you happy? I'm a "I don't want us out of Syria until we have a deliberate game plan," person, yet I am still not happy. Again, what's been demonstrated here is that our foreign policy, like our trade policy, immigration policy, economic policy, etc., are all being driven by the bumble bees angrily buzzing around Trump's skull. Once in a while, it might work out. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, after all. But that doesn't make it any less scary that this is the way our country is being governed.
Sadly, here's my guess: the GOP establishment, scrambling to cover Trump and themselves, says "see! this demonstrates that Bolton is guiding Trump and Trump is listening! Fine! Everything is FINE"
Goddamn, I'm tired of this shit.
ETA:
Whatever policy you favor, the fact that it is being decided this way should bother you. And if it doesn't, I really don't know what to say to you.
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Post by michaelw on Jan 7, 2019 19:38:54 GMT -5
The "I want out of Syria" people -- are you happy? Happy that Trump is backtracking? Seems like an odd question, but maybe I'm not following. Well, I guess that means we'd be staying indefinitely. Sigh.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2019 20:11:25 GMT -5
To be clear: I'm certain you're not happy. That was a mild bit of sarcasm.
My point was really this: saying "gee, I like this one thing Trump did" tends not to work out because odds are excellent he'll reverse himself or do something to muck it up. I think by now that's fairly clear.
The real problem is that he has no plan, no strategy, does no thinking, and he fires everyone who does. The problem is HIM, his shitty character, his lack of intellect, his lack of knowledge and self-restraint. Of course he will not come up with a deliberate game plan to get out of Syria because he is incapable of such a plan. He's only capable of yanking them out on a whim.
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Post by mikey on Jan 7, 2019 20:49:12 GMT -5
Really, it ought not to be that difficult to pull 2000 military personal out of Syria. One wonders if Trump is actually the one who is running the country as often as it is that he gets his mind changed.
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Post by michaelw on Jan 7, 2019 21:00:34 GMT -5
To be clear: I'm certain you're not happy. That was a mild bit of sarcasm. Ah, gotcha. Yep. Although to be fair (to me), I don't think I was really crediting this as something Trump "did", as though it had already happened, as opposed to something that had been announced as a future intention. Obviously I agree Trump has a pattern of reversing himself. Yes, I think we are largely on the same page here, with regard to Trump. (Some of what you're saying here is similar to what I had said about Trump earlier in this thread). It seems to me that where we diverge is mainly on what the implications are for trying to navigate such a complex situation as Syria. If we had a surgery ward overseen by a head surgeon who never went to medical school, who doesn't understand which surgeries need to be performed or how they work, I'd say don't go through with the surgeries. Obviously, in the case of withdrawing from Syria, it's more delicate and difficult than simply canceling a surgery, and you want to have a well thought-out plan. But you need a plan even more if you're going to plow ahead. The risks involved for US personnel working in Syria are significant, as shown here. If things play out a little bit differently and US forces start racking up casualties, how does one justify having kept them in harm's way?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2019 23:13:57 GMT -5
I totally agree with you that we need a well-thought out plan if we're staying.
With Mattis there (or if he were guiding a withdrawal), I'd have at least some degree of confidence that we'd have such a plan. Mattis is competent and he gives a shit about our troops. The problem is that now, I'm pretty certain we won't have a plan. Trump decided to pull out on a whim, and now, probably feeling pressured by something he saw on Fox News or perhaps the fact that conservatives were horrified by his decision, he's decided we're staying -- how long, who knows. I do NOT have the confidence that (a) Bolton or anyone else currently advising him is solid (I had way more confidence in Mattis than Bolton or Pompeo), or (b) that even if Trump did have such an adviser, that he'd listen.
So, yeah, I'm definitely not rejoicing over his switcharoo. I thought a sudden withdrawal was a bad idea. But staying and racking up troop casualties without a plan -- yeah, bad.
I'm frustrated as hell that Trump seems more influenced by whatever idiocy Hannity or Tucker is spewing than what any competent person around him advises. And it scares me that he now has so many important positions empty or filled by people who don't belong in them.
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Post by celawson on Jan 8, 2019 10:48:58 GMT -5
Damned if you do, and dammed if you don't.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2019 11:00:56 GMT -5
When you have no plan and are just swinging out at random, yes, yes you are.
Because the problem is that you're just acting at whim, out of impulse, anger, spite. That's why Mattis quit. But I've no doubt at all Trump's supporters will hasten to back Trump on this. None. Just as they'd back him for doing the reverse.
Tonight Trump will address us all with another manufactured crisis. I'm bracing myself for his using the opportunity to declare a state of emergency where none exists, so he can seize emergency powers, build that fucking unnecessary wall so few want. At a minimum, I expect him to try to make the case for it. And I've no doubt Trump's supporters will back him there as well.
Yes, he's damned. And I'm afraid we're all going to be damned along with him.
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Post by mikey on Jan 8, 2019 12:06:11 GMT -5
Well, one thing for sure, the southern border is a whole lot closer to us than Syria is.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2019 12:59:20 GMT -5
The Canadian border is even closer to me! And about the same number of people on a watch list have been caught at it!
WE NEED A WALL AT THE NORTHERN BORDER! AND ALL AROUND THE COASTS!
BETTER YET, SHUT ALL THE AIRPORTS, SINCE MOST OF THE TERRORISTS COME IN THERE! OH WAIT -- SOME LIVE HERE! BUILD CAMPS FOR THE MUSLIMS! WAIT! SOME GET INDOCTRINATED BY THE INTERNET! SHUT IT DOWN!
You know what's fun? While Trump shuts down the government, and government workers aren't being paid, tons of TSA workers are calling in sick. Hey, I actually dislike the TSA security theater myself. But I'm betting you, c.e., think they make us safer, don't you? And even I think that chaos and congestion at airports makes for a great time for terrorists coming in through airports. Because now the security theater is going to be rushed and even crappier than it usually is. Wouldn't it be fun if Trump's grand game of chicken to get the stupid fucking wall resulted in another 9/11?
And gee, the only way to get the wall built isn't just a matter of money. As Trump has already said, he'll have to seize private land, override the border states. And the only way he can do all that is giving himself emergency powers.
So. Conservative.
You guys really fucking think that we have a crisis at the border that justifies this? Let us see your stats and cites. Show me the crisis that justifies this shutdown. Show me the crisis that would justify declaring a state of emergency.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2019 13:06:37 GMT -5
The Canadian border is even closer to me! And about the same number of people on a watch list have been caught at it! WE NEED A WALL AT THE NORTHERN BORDER! AND ALL AROUND THE COASTS! BETTER YET, SHUT ALL THE AIRPORTS, SINCE MOST OF THE TERRORISTS COME IN THERE! OH WAIT -- SOME LIVE HERE! BUILD CAMPS FOR THE MUSLIMS! WAIT! SOME GET INDOCTRINATED BY THE INTERNET! SHUT IT DOWN! You know what's fun? While Trump shuts down the government, and government workers aren't being paid, tons of TSA workers are calling in sick. Hey, I actually dislike the TSA security theater myself. But I'm betting you, c.e., think they make us safer, don't you? And even I think that chaos and congestion at airports makes for a great time for terrorists coming in through airports. Because now the security theater is going to be rushed and even crappier than it usually is. Wouldn't it be fun if Trump's grand game of chicken to get the stupid fucking wall resulted in another 9/11? And gee, the only way to get the wall built isn't just a matter of money. As Trump has already said, he'll have to seize private land, override the border states. And the only way he can do all that is giving himself emergency powers. So. Conservative. You guys really fucking think that we have a crisis at the border that justifies this? Let us see your stats and cites. Show me the crisis that justifies this shutdown. Show me the crisis that would justify declaring a state of emergency. And while you're at it, c.e., show me, too, how it gives you confidence that Trump first upends everything to say we're yanking out of Syria immediately, then dithers and changes his mind -- but only after driving out Mattis. Is Bolton now your savior, the guy Trump will listen to, the grown up in the room? And yes, I already know the answer to that, and when he's fired or quits, it will be someone else.
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Post by mikey on Jan 8, 2019 13:09:45 GMT -5
Like Saddam Hussein, like Bashar Assad, being "bad" people seem to be all we need to justify fucking up a country. Same USA, different president.
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