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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 24, 2017 5:51:32 GMT -5
Today is the day! Can you feel the excitement in the air? The tension? The expectation, and hopes and dreams of a German populous biting their nails to see who will lead the country for the next few years? Okay, there's no excitement. Really. Everyone pretty much know what's going to happen. Watching the German elections is like waiting for the morning porridge to cool. It's there in the bowl, grey and stolid. Nothing exciting and interesting, and... it's bloody porridge and not anything exciting. Angela Merkel will win. The question is how big. And then the question is who will come second, and third. That's about it. It could all be groundhog day as CDU/CSU return to 2010 and work with the Liberals. And no, these are not your US kind of Liberals. These are the types of Liberals who would tell a starving granny or a hungry orphan that all would be better if they got a haircut, and a job, and didn't whine so much when there was more important things to do - like cutting taxes for the rich. www.dw.com/en/germany-heads-to-the-polls/a-40655495But then again, as another article on that site succinctly put it. "In the past year, Europeans went to bed confident about fairly reliable poll predictions and then woke up to Brexit and Donald Trump." www.dw.com/en/opinion-is-this-the-most-boring-german-election-ever-no/a-40652050
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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 24, 2017 8:12:57 GMT -5
Actually there is some little excitement. Turnout seems to be higher than in 2013. That will benefit the mainstream parties and hurt the AfD. Maybe a little Macron and Wilder effect here? Germans turn out to prevent AfD from gaining anything?
It's also about where the turnout is higher. It's happening in rich and affluent parts of Germany while turnout appears to be lower in more deprived parts like former GDR. Former GDR is where AfD is the strongest.
Maybe there is a little frisson of excitement. Yeah?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 8:38:30 GMT -5
I'm rooting for Merkel. I've become fond of our fuddy-duddy Leader of the Free World. Her facial expressions alone are everything.
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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 24, 2017 8:54:42 GMT -5
I disagree with most of what Angela Merkel stands for. She is a conservative, and I'm not. But... I also respect her, because she has a centre that's decent. We can argue at Oktoberfest about everything, but when push comes to show I think she'll do what is right. Not conservative-right or socialdemocratic-right, but human-right. You could see that in the way she handled the refugees crisis. If the same conditions happened again, she would act the same way again.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 8:58:23 GMT -5
I agree that those virtues are hers -- and what's more, they are increasingly rare. I respect them when I see them.
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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 24, 2017 9:25:29 GMT -5
She will be infuriatingly vague and evasive before making decisions, and she'll be bafflingly pragmatic and go against things you thought defined her politics: like shutting down Nuclear power in Germany by 2020 despite fierce resistance from industry.
As of 14.00 turnout was 71.6 per cent.
In 2013 it was, at that time, 57.1%.
We might be heading for a record turnout. The total turnout in 2013 was 71.5%. At 14, there were still 4 hours to go until the polls close.
Edit: Actually, that was me screwing up. I read a report about Munich turnout and thought it was a national figure
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 9:44:55 GMT -5
She is stable, calm, deeply intelligent, and acts based on reason rather than emotion or the need to be popular. She has precisely the virtues Trump lacks.
I'd give much to have someone of her temperament in charge of the U.S. right now.
On top of all that, and despite being tough as nails, she somehow has the elusive quality that causes me to find her rather adorable. (I think perhaps it is her facial expressions when Trump and Putin are being strutting assholes.)
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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 24, 2017 9:53:57 GMT -5
She has buried many, many alpha males who strutted in thinking they were God's gift to politics. Nearly all of them underestimated her and thought that "the plain little woman surely can't beat ME". The same is happening now with Schultz. It's delightful to see, in a way. Although sad, because I had hoped Schultz would do better.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2017 10:31:24 GMT -5
In a world that increasingly seems to celebrate strutting, grandstanding, alpha-male bullshittery in leaders, it is a deep pleasure to me to see someone like Merkel trod right over them with her sensible dowdy little shoes.
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Post by robeiae on Sept 25, 2017 8:28:33 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Sept 25, 2017 8:33:56 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2017 9:18:19 GMT -5
My Angela will swat them all down with one swipe of her practical, sturdy, neutral-toned leather handbag, make an adorable face, and settle in to business.
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Post by robeiae on Sept 25, 2017 9:27:28 GMT -5
Well, she can't do anything until she can get the coalition formed. And that means putting people from these other parties in positions of power. The German political scene has changed a great deal. What happened here is not what happened in France, at all.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2017 10:47:26 GMT -5
Well, she can't do anything until she can get the coalition formed. And that means putting people from these other parties in positions of power. The German political scene has changed a great deal. What happened here is not what happened in France, at all. I agree. I was just getting carried away by my fondness and respect for Ms. Merkel. She has a tough road ahead of her. But if anyone can plough forward and make the best of it, it is she.
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Post by maxinquaye on Sept 25, 2017 11:47:07 GMT -5
Actually, it will be what happens after every election. There will be lots of talk of possible coalitions, and the individual parties will swear they won't enter anything, and then one morning the parties who refused to participate will... participate. I wouldn't take the SDP's assurances that they won't enter into a new Grand Coalition. Their current refusal could very conceivably be a negotiating tactic to wrangle some concessions. In the end the iron law of "public duty" that exist in German politics will take precedent. That's life in a country with a PR system of government. Coalitions aren't strange or unexpected. The voters take into account what they want to see in government, and vote accordingly. F.eg. here in Sweden there are seven parties who more or less align to two big blocks, the Red-Green block and the Alliance (liberal-conservative). Voters have learned how to support bits of each block to get an emphasis on one set of politics. That's happening in Germany right now.
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