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Post by Amadan on Dec 4, 2016 11:34:33 GMT -5
I don't like the way we've been tiptoeing around China's sensibilities for decades either. That said, China has made it very clear that moving to recognize Taiwan would be a major escalation in the region. Are they bluffing? Would this actually lead to war?
If this was a calculated move on Trump's part, after consulting with people who actually know what's really going on there, and he has decided he's going to make a decisive shift in US foreign policy vis-a-vis China and Taiwan... well, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to that. But I have little confidence that this was a calculated move. I think he just decided that sticking a thumb in China's eye was a very Trump thing to do.
I am all for sticking thumbs in China's eye if you actually have a plan for what follows, but I don't think he does.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 11:35:39 GMT -5
I don't like the way we've been tiptoeing around China's sensibilities for decades either. That said, China has made it very clear that moving to recognize Taiwan would be a major escalation in the region. Are they bluffing? Would this actually lead to war? If this was a calculated move on Trump's part, after consulting with people who actually know what's really going on there, and he has decided he's going to make a decisive shift in US foreign policy vis-a-vis China and Taiwan... well, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to that. But I have little confidence that this was a calculated move. I think he just decided that sticking a thumb in China's eye was a very Trump thing to do. I am all for sticking thumbs in China's eye if you actually have a plan for what follows, but I don't think he does. yep.
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Post by celawson on Dec 4, 2016 12:21:52 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 13:22:10 GMT -5
On the "will this turn into hostility with China?" front, I agree with the Atlantic that we must wait and see.
On the "should we reevaluate our protocol with Taiwan?" I have an open mind. Indeed, in terms of just reevaluating and discussing it, I think it's an excellent idea.
But you fail to address the point Amadan and I are arguing -- that the big problem here is that Trump just stuck a finger in China's eye without considering the complexities of the China situation, without consulting people who've been involved with Asia and know far more about the intricacies of our relationships and protocol than Trump does.
And you're not addressing the fact that he did so while another president with a very different policy is still in office.
ETA:
Or, for that matter, Mike Pence's statement that the Trump administration may not be reconsidering anything about its policy toward Taiwan or China. (if he isn't, what the hell is even the point of sticking his finger in China's eye? Did he even know it would be sticking a finger in China's eye?)
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Post by robeiae on Dec 4, 2016 16:23:18 GMT -5
I'll just say that I hate the double standard that continues to hold sway in the USA, especially among political elites and the media.
Simply put, that double standard is the assumption that US leaders must consider how any action that they take will be viewed by the rest of the world, and that the rest of the world can only react to such actions in a simplistic and emotional manner, while the reverse is not the case in the least.
Calm the fuck down.TM
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 16:30:56 GMT -5
That's not my standard at all -- I think every leader should stop and think instead of stomping around like Godzilla. But I admit giving more of a shit when it's our own leader doing it.
And indeed, everyone should. Because our leader, like it or not, has more ability to cause worldwide chaos than, say, some tinpot dictator of a rinky-dink third world nation.
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Post by robeiae on Dec 4, 2016 16:39:35 GMT -5
It was a phone call. Worldwide chaos is not imminent. And I think China's leadership has far more sense than people are crediting them with having. After all, China has kept relations going with North Korea for a long time now. They have, in fact, a treaty that would require China to come to North Korea's aid if North Korea was threatened militarily by any other power. If China can maintain that relationship with a country that has publicly threatened to destroy the US, Trump can take a phone call from Taiwan without fear of plunging the US into WWIII. Imo.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 16:44:28 GMT -5
Again -- my reaction is less to the effect this particular phone call will have (unclear to me at this point what impact it will have) as to having yet another demonstration that Trump just stomps into situations without giving them the consideration they deserve. This situation may well turn out fine. But presidents, IMO, shouldn't just wing sensitive diplomatic foreign protocol.
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Post by Rolling Thunder on Dec 4, 2016 16:48:10 GMT -5
What if Trump calls China for take-out and gives them a false delivery address in Taiwan?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 16:50:21 GMT -5
He'll miss out on some damn fine dim sum.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2016 18:42:08 GMT -5
By the way, Rob, I believe this marks the first time we've disagreed on the site. That makes me feel all sentimental, so naturally I have to mark it.
Here's to many more arguments in the future. Next time, bring your mace and flail, and I shall bring my ax.
ETA:
Also, this marks my 500th post. I am expecting cake.
ETA:
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Post by Vince524 on Dec 5, 2016 13:31:58 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2016 13:55:38 GMT -5
Well, of course it was set up ahead of time. As I noted on the first page of this thread, it couldn't have happened any other way. So let's take that as a given. On the one hand, many on the Trump team say it was planned and a deliberate poke in the eye at China, signalling a sea change in our relations with China and Taiwan. On the other, we have Pence and Conway "it was just a phone call, doesn't mean anything about a policy change," and Trump tweeting "she called ME!" (as though to say, "hey, don't look at me, I just answered the phone.") We also have Obama and current people involved in Chinese/Tauwan relations stating that it wasn't discussed with them first. (In other words, no consultation to query on why in forty years, five very different presidents from both parties agreed this was the way to go. ) We also have the fact that we have a sitting president, Trump ain't him, and that sitting president has a different policy. The time may well be ripe to stick a finger in China's eye, and to acknowledge Taiwan. But I don't think Trump put enough consideration into it to conclude that (because IMO consulting with the current administration would have been part of that). And finally, I don't like double talk bullshit. "It was carefully planned!" "It was random! She just buzzed me and I picked up!" "We did it to signal a shift in China policy!" "It doesn't signal anything about China policy!" ETA: What I think? The call was planned (of course), and probably intended as a poke in China's eye, since Trump likes to poke eyes, thinks swinging his dick signals strength and it feeds his oversized ego. But he did not, nor did his team, give sufficient consideration to implications and potential consequences. ETA: This dude at Salon pretty much sums up my take on the double talk: www.salon.com/2016/12/05/trumps-taiwan-two-step-how-one-phone-call-became-both-a-meaningless-courtesy-and-a-savvy-power-play/
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2016 15:07:01 GMT -5
All that being said, I'm sincerely hoping it all turns out well. And it might -- time will tell. But I don't like, at all, the way he did it, or the way he operates in general. I never have, and that stretches back long before this election, and indeed back to the days when Trump was a Democrat. As a New Yorker, I've seen far too much of Mr. Trump in action.
I suspect I'll be repeating the above sentences a lot over the next four years. Perhaps I should just put them in my signature.
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Post by Rolling Thunder on Dec 6, 2016 7:32:24 GMT -5
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