Post by robeiae on Oct 19, 2018 9:08:18 GMT -5
So, we're closing in on the first Federal Elections since Trump more or less shocked the world by winning the Presidency. Many people "in the know" predicted dire consequences for the US, if not for the world. To be sure, time is hardly up on Trump's Presidency, so we're hardly out of the woods (and certainly, one could argue that he's already done some significant damage), yet I think it would be tough to argue with a straight face that things have collapsed or the like. Take a look at Krugman's* predictions: www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout
And Krugman--like so many other people--misread the stock market's apparent instant response to the election completely (of course, most of those other people aren't Noble Prize-winning economists).
Fred Barnes at TWS details some more prediction of this sort here: www.weeklystandard.com/fred-barnes/what-trump-knows-that-obama-didnt
The supposed permanent capping of economic growth at 2%, I remember that well. The argument by so many mainstream economists at the time was that in the new global economy, growth greater than that was simply becoming impossible, unless there was another economic collapse (at which point a recovery might lead to such numbers...might).
* Yes, part of my goal in starting this thread is beating on Krugman and his consistent ability to get everything wrong, when it comes to economic forecasting.
Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can be the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.
Fred Barnes at TWS details some more prediction of this sort here: www.weeklystandard.com/fred-barnes/what-trump-knows-that-obama-didnt
The supposed permanent capping of economic growth at 2%, I remember that well. The argument by so many mainstream economists at the time was that in the new global economy, growth greater than that was simply becoming impossible, unless there was another economic collapse (at which point a recovery might lead to such numbers...might).
* Yes, part of my goal in starting this thread is beating on Krugman and his consistent ability to get everything wrong, when it comes to economic forecasting.