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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2019 15:31:45 GMT -5
www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/us/politics/bill-weld-trump-2020.htmlBill Weld Will Challenge Trump for 2020 Republican Nomination Of course he will not win; the Trumpistas have been putting in the lock. But he provides Republican voters with a viable, experienced, sane, moderate choice in the GOP primary. I salute him with all my heart.
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Post by markesq on Feb 26, 2019 19:01:17 GMT -5
Good for him. Maybe he can deliver a few good body blows in the primaries, wear out the orange moron.
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Post by nighttimer on Feb 26, 2019 20:43:58 GMT -5
William Weld is DOA. He's got about as much chance to primary Trump as Woody Allen to slam dunk over Shaquille O'Neal. He's running for a job as an expert commentator on CNN. That's all.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2019 21:10:55 GMT -5
I agree he won't win, NT.
But.
An historian on Twitter noted that while primary challenges to incumbent presidents do not succeed historically, on the other hand, sitting presidents who are primaried generally lose in the general election. Which is what counts. I think Mark's point about wearing Trump out in the primary stretch (and costing him money) is apropos. And symbolically, I think it's hugely important. Weld isn't some punk no one ever heard of -- he's a two-time governor with some clout. I think it's also the case that it gives a specific focus and choice for dissatisfied Republicans.
And on that last point -- it will be interesting to see, now that Trump has shown thoroughly what he is, what Republicans will do given a viable choice in the primaries. I know a couple of Republicans who will regard it as manna from heaven that they can pull a lever for someone else in a primary. But then, there are those others. But this time, there's no excuse of "oh, I didn't know what he was like and I'm a loyal Republican and I couldn't vote for Hillary", as there was in the 2016 election. It will say worlds about someone, IMO, if they choose Trump in this situation. (And you can guess I won't think it says anything good.)
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Post by Optimus on Feb 26, 2019 22:18:24 GMT -5
An historian on Twitter... This person seriously needs to start calling her/himself a "Twitstorian" or "Tweetstorian" or something like that. Think of the branding potential!
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Post by nighttimer on Feb 27, 2019 11:15:14 GMT -5
I agree he won't win, NT. But. An historian on Twitter noted that while primary challenges to incumbent presidents do not succeed historically, on the other hand, sitting presidents who are primaried generally lose in the general election. Which is what counts. I think Mark's point about wearing Trump out in the primary stretch (and costing him money) is apropos. And symbolically, I think it's hugely important. Weld isn't some punk no one ever heard of -- he's a two-time governor with some clout. I think it's also the case that it gives a specific focus and choice for dissatisfied Republicans. And on that last point -- it will be interesting to see, now that Trump has shown thoroughly what he is, what Republicans will do given a viable choice in the primaries. I know a couple of Republicans who will regard it as manna from heaven that they can pull a lever for someone else in a primary. But then, there are those others. But this time, there's no excuse of "oh, I didn't know what he was like and I'm a loyal Republican and I couldn't vote for Hillary", as there was in the 2016 election. It will say worlds about someone, IMO, if they choose Trump in this situation. (And you can guess I won't think it says anything good.) I admire your optimism, but there's really no reason for it. Bill Weld is as much a bona fide Republican as Bernie Sanders is a Democrat and that's not a lot to hang his hopes on. There simply aren't enough "Never Trumpers" left in the GOP. It's Trump's party now and they are all-in. Weld may be a two-time governor with some clout, but he hasn't won an election since 1994. That's long enough to be declared clinically dead in politics.
Secondly, if a socially moderate, fiscally conservative governor from Massachusetts with the Republican Party behind him failed to prevent Barack Obama's reelection in 2012, how well will Weld fare with the Republican Party against him? I'm trying to see a way how Weld brings the MAGA red meat masses to his side and all I see is no way.
Even if Weld had a pathway to the Republican presidential nomination, several states are mulling plans to insulate Trump from a primary challenge and while yes, Weld could make Trump spend a bit of his war chest on squashing him like a skittering roach, Five Thirty Eight isn't bullish on the oods of a New England Republican with libertarian leanings putting much of a dent in the GOP incumbent.
The operative phrase there is "face serious primary challenges." Current Maryland governor Larry Hogan and former Ohio governor John Kasich are being talked up as potential challengers to Trump, but without something nasty and stinky in the Mueller report or some other scandal in his closet full of them tumbling into the light of day, Trump is a lock to lead the GOP into battle in 2020.
If Weld gets to five percent in the polls, I'll be shocked. Then Trump will go on a Twitter spree and that will be that.
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Post by Vince524 on Feb 27, 2019 13:08:18 GMT -5
I agree with NT that this guy might be nice, but he'll be a hiccup in the race. If we get another GOPer that is a serious contender, And nobody but them, maybe. If you end up with a parade like last time, no. The sane people will split their primary votes between the saner GOPers and Trump will survive and get the rest.
So then it comes down to the D's. Can they put forward someone that moderate GOPers can get behind. So far, no.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2019 14:21:42 GMT -5
I said, twice, HE WON'T WIN. That is not why I think it matters. The mere fact that the sitting president is being primaried is a big deal. While, again, WELD WON'T WIN the nomination, sitting presidents who get primaried generally lose. Incumbents who run generally get a clean easy ride to the nomination. While, again, HE WON'T WIN the nomination, he'll force Trump to put forth some efforts campaigning against him. (Trump won't be able to help himself, anyway -- he'll feel compelled to pile on Weld even if his efforts would be better spent in other ways. While, again, HE WON'T WIN the nomination, I also have a hunch that him putting himself out there might encourage others to do so. Sometimes you just need one brave soldier to stand up.... While, again, HE WON'T WIN the nomination, he's not a joke candidate. He's a well-regarded two-time former governor. The fact that such a man is putting forth a challenge is important even though, like I said, HE WON'T WIN. He doesn't need to win for this to be a big deal. ETA: A bit of history on past primary challenges of sitting presidents, and the outcomes: www.cbsnews.com/news/when-presidents-get-primary-challenges/
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Post by Vince524 on Feb 27, 2019 19:41:43 GMT -5
Yeah, I get that. But I don't think he'll garner enough of the poll to even force Trump into a debate. He'll be an annoying fly. Besides, I hate to tell you this, he's not going to win.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2019 20:04:18 GMT -5
He's...not going to win? But anyway. I am thinking perhaps voters like you (if you're registered as a Republican and can vote in that primary) might find it satisfying to have a chance to pull that lever for a candidate who isn't a grifter. I have a couple of friends who are registered Republicans who are pleased as punch about it -- they went Johnson/Weld in 2016 and are thrilled to pull a lever for Weld again. We'll see. I think it weakens Trump. Historically, primary challenges do. And every chink in the GOP wall protecting that grifting turd matters, IMO. And it's a middle finger in his face, which of course makes me happy. Go Weld! Also, I'm specifically happy to see someone challenging him in the primary rather than as an independent. Normally, I'm good with third party candidates (and indeed have voted for them). But given that I think the single most important thing in 2020 is getting Trump out and someone in who isn't a lying cheating grifting traitorous turd, this year I'm worry about dividing the vote. I'd like to see the Dems pick someone who independents can get on board with sufficiently to vote for over Trump.
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Post by Vince524 on Feb 27, 2019 20:25:07 GMT -5
I'm an Independent. Maybe I should register as an R to vote against Trump in the primary.
Still, I hate to tell you this, Weld won't win.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2019 20:48:14 GMT -5
He...won't win? Definitely register as an R to vote against Trump in the primary. It would be the patriotic thing to do. And I'll send you a cookie. I'd consider doing it myself, except I want to do what I can to make sure we get a candidate I like and think can win (NOT BERNIE PLEASE NOT BERNIE) on the Dem side.
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Post by Vince524 on Feb 27, 2019 20:50:19 GMT -5
Of course, IIRC, most everyone said Trump couldn't win.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2019 21:12:28 GMT -5
Of course, IIRC, most everyone said Trump couldn't win. This is a point. Do eeeet. Register R, just to vote against Trump in the primary. Hey, you never know. Let me just dream for a minute about the prospect of having him out of the 2020 race...of not having that sick dread in the pit of my stomach as election day approaches, instead just my usual healthy interest and preference for one candidate over another...a return at last to those halcyon pre-2016 days before we entered this horrifying alternative storyline...
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Post by michaelw on Feb 27, 2019 22:49:17 GMT -5
I said, twice, HE WON'T WIN. So you're saying there's a chance?
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