Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2016 12:07:27 GMT -5
Poll to follow. Keep your drawers on.
Although I think all of these factors came into play (and I'm sure many will agree), I am limiting your options to one -- I'm interested in hearing what you think was the most important factor. Of course, feel free to discuss in the comments.
ETA:
I think the primary factor was a rejection of Hillary in particular -- or at least, of her not raising sufficient enthusiasm to counter those voting for Trump. I believe many nevertrumpers might have gone for a different Democrat. I was willing to overlook my issues with her, but I think many were not.
|
|
tanstaafl
Pundit
Retired 11/01/2016 and loving it!
Posts: 91
|
Post by tanstaafl on Nov 10, 2016 12:13:14 GMT -5
People wanting change, period. I elaborated elsewhere.
|
|
|
Post by celawson on Nov 10, 2016 12:19:13 GMT -5
I agree with people wanting change. I don't think Hillary's scandal baggage brought her down as much as her policies and her political insider status. In considering the baggage which came with each candidate, if people were willing to ignore Trump's character faults, they would be willing to ignore Hillary's. But if people didn't like the path our country was going down with Obama, then it was clear Hillary would be more of the same and further left in some respects. That was just not a palatable option for many who disliked Trump but lean right.
I also think there was a complacency in the left, who just couldn't believe Trump could win, therefore who didn't get their butts off the couch to vote.
|
|
|
Post by Amadan on Nov 10, 2016 12:41:58 GMT -5
While I think it was a desire for "change" (and a smaller number who just wanted to see liberals cry) that made voting for Trump acceptable, the fact remains that a better candidate would have beaten him, probably crushingly. So I think Hillary and all her negatives is the single greatest reason for her defeat.
|
|
|
Post by robeiae on Nov 10, 2016 12:46:38 GMT -5
Yes. A better candidate would have beaten Trump easily, imo. And by the same token, a better candidate than Trump would have beaten Clinton with ease. By the end of the race, she had basically abandoned policy and was only criticizing Trump as an awful person (which I predicted, by the way; I just didn't think she could actually lose).
|
|
|
Post by Vince524 on Nov 10, 2016 12:48:34 GMT -5
It is a mix, although I voted rejection of Clinton as I think that was the most important nail in the coffin. Here's the way it is. About 30% of the population support either GOP or Democrats regardless of who the candidate is. However, those people may or may not come out to actually vote depending on the candidate. Clinton, unlike Trump or Obama, generated no excitement from the D side, but a lot of anger from the R side. People saw her not only as corrupt and dishonest, but also she is the establishment candidate. There was the fact that people want change. Almost anyone you ask, left or right, will tell you that the system is rigged. She couldn't be the agent of change. She was also stuck, however unfairly, because she needed Obama's support and his base. He's still more popular. So she couldn't openly criticize him. Plus, there was the popularity of Bernie, so she was stuck between Barack and a Bernie place. People were fed up with the R's because they couldn't get Obamacare repealed. (Trump may not either) but she couldn't do much to even criticize it. Bernie called for single payer, she wouldn't even do that. She was a bad candidate. I refused to vote for Trump, but I didn't vote for her either. If they had run someone more palatable, without her baggage, I would have. Back on AW, people seemed to often fawn over her say on the debates, but I never felt she came off all that great, except compared to Trump. Take her answer on the supreme court. www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/19/the-final-trump-clinton-debate-transcript-annotated/"And I feel strongly that the Supreme Court needs to stand on the side of the American people, not on the side of the powerful corporations and the wealthy. For me, that means that we need a Supreme Court that will stand up on behalf of women's rights, on behalf of the rights of the LGBT community, that will stand up and say no to Citizens United, a decision that has undermined the election system in our country because of the way it permits dark, unaccountable money to come into our electoral system. That's how I see the court, and the kind of people that I would be looking to nominate to the court would be in the great tradition of standing up to the powerful, standing up on behalf of our rights as Americans. And I look forward to having that opportunity. I would hope that the Senate would do its job and confirm the nominee that President Obama has sent to them. That's the way the Constitution fundamentally should operate. The president nominates, and then the Senate advises and consents, or not, but they go forward with the process." The courts job isn't to look out for anyone, powerful or poor, and it's not to lead the country. It's to interpret the law. Checks and balances. Not another form of the legislative branch. Her remarks on Heller made it seem like there was a toddler involved, but it had to do with a total ban on handguns and was brought by a cop. (Maybe she heard Heller and thought little hellion?) There's a reason why when she left the White House, she moved to New York to run for the Senate and not Arkansas. She only plays well in deep blue states, and even then not to the point of excitement.
|
|
|
Post by Vince524 on Nov 10, 2016 12:51:06 GMT -5
Yes. A better candidate would have beaten Trump easily, imo. And by the same token, a better candidate than Trump would have beaten Clinton with ease. By the end of the race, she had basically abandoned policy and was only criticizing Trump as an awful person (which I predicted, by the way; I just didn't think she could actually lose). Yeah, I gotta say I thought the dems could run a 3 legged blind dog humping a fire hydrant and still win, but they were so weak that anyone on the other side would have blown them away.
|
|
|
Post by Vince524 on Nov 10, 2016 13:03:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Angie on Nov 10, 2016 14:14:08 GMT -5
Or some of the yahoos who said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning. Nate Silver had a dust-up with one of them because they took issue with him giving Trump even a 30% chance. Also, I can't verify it but it's an interesting thought (this is a friend-of-a-friend-said-so thing, so take it as such): Alt-right, white supremacy groups, and the like may have been actively skewing the polls. This friend of a friend said that there was an organized effort to claim they were voting for Hillary, in order to make Dems think she had a lock and therefore not come out to vote. Again, totally unverifiable, but if true it would be an interesting study in the fallibility of polls and predictions.
|
|
|
Post by Amadan on Nov 10, 2016 14:30:59 GMT -5
Also, I can't verify it but it's an interesting thought (this is a friend-of-a-friend-said-so thing, so take it as such): Alt-right, white supremacy groups, and the like may have been actively skewing the polls. This friend of a friend said that there was an organized effort to claim they were voting for Hillary, in order to make Dems think she had a lock and therefore not come out to vote. Again, totally unverifiable, but if true it would be an interesting study in the fallibility of polls and predictions. I think that's about as credible as all the alt-righters who were claiming a massive conspiracy to rig the election for Clinton beforehand. The number of people you'd have to organize to pull off something like that would be huge, and there's no way to keep that big a project secret.
|
|
|
Post by Vince524 on Nov 10, 2016 14:48:03 GMT -5
Also, I can't verify it but it's an interesting thought (this is a friend-of-a-friend-said-so thing, so take it as such): Alt-right, white supremacy groups, and the like may have been actively skewing the polls. This friend of a friend said that there was an organized effort to claim they were voting for Hillary, in order to make Dems think she had a lock and therefore not come out to vote. Again, totally unverifiable, but if true it would be an interesting study in the fallibility of polls and predictions. I think that's about as credible as all the alt-righters who were claiming a massive conspiracy to rig the election for Clinton beforehand. The number of people you'd have to organize to pull off something like that would be huge, and there's no way to keep that big a project secret. [ And it could easily backfire. If you believe your guy doesn't stand a chance, you may not vote.
|
|
|
Post by Angie on Nov 10, 2016 14:53:30 GMT -5
Both good points. There's been a LOT of conspiracy theorizing this election.
|
|
|
Post by robeiae on Nov 14, 2016 9:25:54 GMT -5
Almost a week out and the pundits, analysts, and so-called experts are all weighing in on the "why." Instructively, most seem the be talking about "Why Clinton lost," as opposed to "Why Trump won."
Regardless, some of the top reasons that I've seen:
1) Comey, Comey, Comey, Comey, Comey. I guess since Clinton said as much, it's hard not to note it. But I think the people blaming Comey for this are fooling themselves.
2) The Midwest (and Pennsylvania): Clinton failed to get the needed turnout here. One analysis I saw said that upwards of 90,000 voters in the Detroit area cast ballots that had no choice for the Presidency: they voted for all the down ballot races, but not for the one at the top. If that's correct, it's pretty fucking telling, imo. It means, I think, that a lot of people simply didn't like Clinton. At all.
3) The Electoral College. Sure. But of course, everyone knew the score going in, no?
4) Racists, Sexists, and Homophobes (oh my!).
|
|
|
Post by Vince524 on Nov 14, 2016 13:34:59 GMT -5
Yeah, it's all about how bad America is, how people were convinced that Clinton who according to some was the most qualified candidate next to God himself was just a liar by the mean right wing conspiracy and Comey who was the 2nd coming of Christ in July is now the Anti-Christ.
There's no possibility that the dems picked a bad candidate. I still see people talking about how we shouldn't say that, we should talk about how bad Trump was, despite the fact that he won. It's unreal.
|
|
|
Post by poetinahat on Nov 15, 2016 0:57:13 GMT -5
It seemed the Bernie/Wasserman/superdelegate shemozzle was significant too. As obnoxious and pouty the whole "this election is rigged" spiel was, the Democrats couldn't claim much moral high ground.
On reflection, the fact that so much energy went to bringing Bernie voters into the fold - against a candidate like Trump - is just astonishing. From my comfy seat overseas, I can't fathom it, as dull, Establishment, or swampy Hillary was. Christ, it was TRUMP they were facing, and the Bernie folks STILL had to be cajoled.
Unless, of course, they didn't think they could lose, even without the Bernie vote. And we're back to hubris.
eta: First, it surprised me that Bernie folks would be that reluctant about giving up and backing the party candidate. Then, it surprised me how much distaste there was, not just for the DNC dealings, but for Hillary. Not being hugely into politics, I just didn't see the animus.
Finally, I recalled hearing in 2008 that some Hillary supporters were saying they'd rather vote McCain than Obama.
So, it made me wonder how these people ever get a candidate elected. RE-elected, sure. But that first step's a big one.
|
|