Post by robeiae on Nov 13, 2019 9:50:44 GMT -5
www.cbsnews.com/news/bolivia-evo-morales-flees-coup-exile-mexico-leaves-chaos-in-his-wake-today-2019-11-12/
The OAS election observers for the October 20th elections reported a large number of irregularities that lead to Morales and others stepping down. Some details:
Military leaders pressured Morales and his cohorts and now Bolivia is leaderless, though a member of the senate has declared herself the new leader, in a supposedly transitional role:
Tough to now how this will shake out. But regarding the OAS report on the apparent shenanigans, there is this:
Interesting, but it seems to miss the point. Official results have Morales winning by more than 10 points, with less than half the vote. If Morales won by less than ten points, there would be a runoff election between Morales and Mesa (who finished in second) and Morales might very well lose that election to united opposition. The CEPR leans progressive to be sure, so that probably explains its position (which, by the way, is in line with Russia's official position on this).
Bolivia faced its worst unrest in decades amid a political vacuum Tuesday, while Evo Morales, who transformed the Andean nation as its first indigenous president, fled the country following weeks of violent protests. Morales flew out on a Mexican government plane late Monday, hours after being granted asylum as his supporters and foes fought on the streets of the capital.
The OAS election observers for the October 20th elections reported a large number of irregularities that lead to Morales and others stepping down. Some details:
Its findings, released Sunday in preliminary form, were scathing. There were allegedly all sorts of fairly usual shenanigans, such as ballot stuffing at certain locations. And there was terrible IT protocol, including the unexplained use of an unauthorized server located abroad to handle part of the data transmission with the vote count. But the biggest question mark over the elections centers on a suspicious halt in the recount. With a little over 80 percent of the vote in, and Morales holding a slight lead but losing steam, the official vote count inexplicably stopped for a full day. When it restarted, Morales had somehow snagged the overwhelming majority of the outstanding votes, while opposition candidates nosedived. That mysterious late surge gave Morales just enough cushion to avoid a runoff (either win 50 percent of the vote or at least hold a 10-point edge over the next candidate). Most analysts agree that a united opposition would have overcome Morales in any runoff, but there wasn’t one.
“The audit team cannot verify the results of the present election, and thus recommends a new vote,” the OAS team concluded.
“The audit team cannot verify the results of the present election, and thus recommends a new vote,” the OAS team concluded.
Military leaders pressured Morales and his cohorts and now Bolivia is leaderless, though a member of the senate has declared herself the new leader, in a supposedly transitional role:
The Senate's second vice president, opposition politician Jeanine Añez, said in an emotional address that she would take temporary control of the Senate, though it was unclear if she would be able to get approval from Congress, which is controlled by Morales supporters. She would become next in line for the presidency if chosen to head the Senate.
Tough to now how this will shake out. But regarding the OAS report on the apparent shenanigans, there is this:
Statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia’s October 20 elections shows no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory, researchers and analysts at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) say. Contrary to a postelection narrative that was supported, without evidence, by the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, statistical analysis shows that it was predictable that Morales would obtain a first-round win, based on the results of the first 83.85 percent of votes in a rapid count that showed Morales leading runner-up Carlos Mesa by less than 10 points.
The new paper, “What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission,” presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia’s vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales’s first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.
“There is simply no statistical or evidentiary basis to dispute the vote count results showing that Evo Morales won in the first round,” CEPR Senior Policy Analyst, and coauthor of the paper, Guillaume Long said. “In the end, the official count, which is legally binding and completely transparent, with the tally sheets available online, closely matched the rapid count results.”
The new paper, “What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission,” presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia’s vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales’s first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.
“There is simply no statistical or evidentiary basis to dispute the vote count results showing that Evo Morales won in the first round,” CEPR Senior Policy Analyst, and coauthor of the paper, Guillaume Long said. “In the end, the official count, which is legally binding and completely transparent, with the tally sheets available online, closely matched the rapid count results.”
