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Post by Optimus on Nov 29, 2020 18:19:12 GMT -5
I'm not advocating for masks one way or another other than to say the spread rate in the US is pretty consistent across to board, despite some areas having strict mandates and lockdowns and some not. My state, New Mexico, for example, has had the strictest lockdown measures in the nation since the beginning of the pandemic and we are swimming in COVID cases. Example is our neighbor Texas, who has virtually no restrictions and less spread than we do. The actual tracking data for New Mexico and Texas seem to contradict your assertion. I'm certainly not an epidemiologist, but the trend lines seem to suggest that the initial spike in the US occured in mid-summer, when people in many states started convincing themselves that "this is no big deal" and whining about wanting their "freedumb" and states started relaxing restrictions. Then, rates started increasing and people realized, "oh shit, maybe this is a thing," and rates started going down. Then, people started protesting (again) about any number of things AND school started back up in many places across the country with in-person classes and cases started skyrocketing. Of course, the spikes could be for any number of reasons (including increased testing), but people's behaviour seems to be the main driver: USA trends
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Post by prozyan on Nov 29, 2020 18:35:38 GMT -5
You are looking at the wrong data. New Mexico has a population that is about equal to the population of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area in Texas. So cases per 100k is a much stronger indicator. Currently, New Mexico ranks 5th in the US with 99/100k. Texas has about 1/3 that rate. Florida, which most people said would be akin to a wasteland by now because of DeSantis's policies, is also about 1/3 that rate. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7daysYou can even set the data back to January of this year, and New Mexico still shows a higher rate per 100k than Texas and is on par with Florida. Florida and Texas are both under very light restrictions, New Mexico has been, since March, among the most strict. I won't argue that people's behavior is a contributing factor to the spread....I just don't think it is the main driver. Again, based on what I see (anecdotal, I know), there are not near enough "mask-holes" - people ignoring mask guidance or social distance recommendations - to create super spread such as is being seen.
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Post by Optimus on Nov 29, 2020 19:04:15 GMT -5
I was looking at trends in spread (the spikes, as I specifically said), not per capita cases (which are currently roughly the same at 4 per 1000 for both Texas and New Mexico). From the same link... covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7daysNew Mexico cases per 1000 = roughly 4 Texas cases per 1000 = 4 Florida cases per 1000 = roughly 5 So, my earlier statement, "The actual tracking data for New Mexico and Texas seem to contradict your assertion," still stands. Yeah, there have been spikes over the past 7 days but is that due to actual growth in spread or from more mass testing? I don't know. Overall, though, the rate so far is pretty equal in those two states and the main reason that New Mexico has caught up with Texas was due to this recent spike. Before that, your assertion would've been even more incorrect. I don't see how anything you said rebuts my contention that people's behaviour is likely the main driver in the spread:
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Post by prozyan on Nov 29, 2020 19:30:19 GMT -5
Ok. But by that explanation, New Mexicans just suddenly went insane following Labor Day and began disregarding all the previous guidelines and maintained that behavior over the course of the next three months despite worrying upward trends. That's possible. I guess. My point is, and always has been, that social behavior isn't BAD enough to explain the exponential spread. My contention is asymptomatic cases have to be much greater than previously thought. In other words, there are simply more infected people and the pandemic is far greater than believed. The CDC estimates that only 1/8th of all COVID cases are caught through testing and contact tracing. I believe that number is much higher. www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-only-1-8th-of-infections-caught/
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Post by Optimus on Nov 29, 2020 21:17:58 GMT -5
You keep going back to "more asymptomatic cases than we think."
How do you think this airborne virus spreads? Do you think that it somehow spreads differently if a person is symptomatic versus asymptomatic?
I'm not sure what the point is that you think you're making.
Again, asymptomatic cases wouldn't spread at such an alarming rate if everyone were wearing masks and taking proper social distancing precautions.
As per the article I quoted above (from New Mexico), it seems that has been happening at a decreasing rate while, simultaneously, COVID-19 infections are spiking at an increasing rate.
To believe that there isn't an important causal connection between the two would be questionable.
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Post by prozyan on Nov 29, 2020 21:50:49 GMT -5
You keep going back to "more asymptomatic cases than we think." How do you think this airborne virus spreads? Do you think that it somehow spreads differently if a person is symptomatic versus asymptomatic? I'm not sure what the point is that you think you're making. Again, asymptomatic cases wouldn't spread at such an alarming rate if everyone were wearing masks and taking proper social distancing precautions. No. I'm making my point poorly. I go back to asymptomatic because someone who is symptomatic is going to: 1. Not feel like going out
2. Get tested
3. Most likely self-quarantine
Someone who has the virus and is contagious, but has ZERO idea they have it or are contagious is going to go about their daily business. Out to the store, to work, and so on. Even if this person is taking all the precautions, wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, there is still a chance they infect other people. That chance is only mitigated by masking and distancing, it is not eliminated. Speaking generally, I believe symptomatic people are going to be hyper-vigilant about their actions and behavior. Asymptomatic people, on the other hand, may be vigilant, but will pull their mask down below their nose, may get too close to friends, etc. In other words, they are going to be human. If there is one out of every 10 cases that are asymptomatic like that, you will see some spread. My view is this number is actually closer to half of all cases are asymptomatic. So yeah, you can say everyone should just pretend like they have it, but that isn't based in reality. So no, I don't think it spreads differently between symptomatic and asymptomatic people. I do, however, believe that there is a larger number of asymptomatic people than believed that are spreading it through occasional lapses in judgement. I suppose I am kind of making your point for you that behavior is behind the spread. However, when I think of negative behavior, I think of people refusing to wear a mask, people attending massive parties and the like. Yes, these people are out there. I just don't see enough people acting that irresponsibly to cause the exponential rise we see not only in the US, but in the world. I believe, rather, there are so many people infected that it is the small lapses in judgement that is driving the spread. So while they are both behavior related, I don't think the answer is as simple or trite as "well, if everyone would just wear a mask and distance"....that to me is like saying "well, if people would just stop being people". My point is, which I feel I am still poorly making, that while behavior does make a difference, it doesn't explain the exponential rise. The only logical conclusion I can come up with is the infection rate is much higher than expected, so much so that the small lapses that virtually all people make, such as lifting the mask to scratch your face, touching surfaces and creating cross-contamination scenarios, etc. are driving the spread.
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Post by robeiae on Nov 30, 2020 8:09:51 GMT -5
My lay person general opinion on all of this at this stage of the game:
I simply follow the guidelines in my State/city/community. I social distance, I wear a mask. Avoiding crowds was easy for me since I do that naturally. And I do these things to either a) help minimize the spread or b) mitigate the fear others have. If a) doesn't matter, I'll still do it for b). But I think there are yuuuge problems with the way data is compiled at every level, local to federal. I don't think there's any conspiracy here at all and I think a lot of people have died and are dying because of Covid. But I just don't trust the specific numbers in the US so I don't know if we can really be sure about "hotspots" and the like.
Beyond that, I've felt since the beginning that mandating what businesses can open and how people can conduct their daily lives was a huge mistake. I go along to get along, but I was never in any danger of losing my business, my home, all my savings because of these mandates.
And on a philosophical level, I noted to my parents--who are both in their eighties--in the very beginning of all this how Covid seemed to be clearing out the dead wood, mostly. Sorry of that sounds harsh, but I don't know another way to say it. And in that regard, the people who clamor the most about over population and resource management have been the loudest complainers about Covid, have been the ones arguing for total lockdowns and massive spending on ventilators and the like.
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Post by robeiae on Dec 1, 2020 7:19:08 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Dec 4, 2020 7:08:56 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Dec 4, 2020 7:31:11 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Dec 6, 2020 15:13:05 GMT -5
Let's play "How many things are wrong with this picture": www.dailywire.com/news/juan-williams-tests-positive-for-covid-19So he tested positive in NYC--apparently with symptoms, as well--then boarded a plane to go to DC, didn't go home, though, instead went to a hotel (bets on it NOT being a Motel 6?), where he is "quarantining" and getting sicker. I wonder, did he take a cab or an Uber from the airport to the hotel? Assclown.
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Post by Optimus on Dec 7, 2020 22:11:51 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Dec 7, 2020 22:25:14 GMT -5
Ha, yeah, unsurprisingly it seems like she's probably guilty (assuming the evidence is legit).
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Post by robeiae on Dec 8, 2020 8:57:29 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Dec 8, 2020 12:08:52 GMT -5
At this point, she kinda seems like the left's version of Mellissa Carone, at least in terms of credibility.
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