Post by robeiae on Sept 18, 2020 8:41:43 GMT -5
thehill.com/opinion/campaign/516395-feehery-a-surprising-republican-wave-election-could-be-looming
Now, anyone paying attention to social media in general and twitter specifically would laugh their ass off at the idea that the Repubs might somehow regain the House, let alone win retain the White House. But twitter isn't actually a barometer of the electorate, as hard as that might be for the blue check marks in the media to accept.
But still, a blue wave seems like a serious stretch, even if the polling is a little off.
I'm going to have to go with pipe dream, and I say this as someone who completely misread things in 2016, but who did see what was happening in 2010. FWIW.
In 1994, nobody expected the House to flip to the Republicans for the first time in 40 years.
The Contract with America was seen as a curiosity, Rep. Newt Gingrich’s (R-Ga.) vanity project. The media roundly lampooned it. And then November rolled around and history was made.
In September 2006, George Bush wasn’t that popular, the Iraq War wasn’t going that well, but most pundits and most Republicans thought the House would hold. Then the Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) scandal consumed Washington, and Nancy Pelosi was swept in as history’s first female Speaker of the House.
In September 2010, after the Tea Party summer, the smart set still didn’t see how the future would unfold. I remember seeing an analysis from an investment bank which confidently predicted that the House would stay in Democratic hands. Oops.
[snip]
But if Trump’s energy, enthusiasm and vision prevails in November, look for Republicans to catch a ride and recapture the House majority. Waves are hard to see in September but rise up quickly in November.
The Contract with America was seen as a curiosity, Rep. Newt Gingrich’s (R-Ga.) vanity project. The media roundly lampooned it. And then November rolled around and history was made.
In September 2006, George Bush wasn’t that popular, the Iraq War wasn’t going that well, but most pundits and most Republicans thought the House would hold. Then the Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) scandal consumed Washington, and Nancy Pelosi was swept in as history’s first female Speaker of the House.
In September 2010, after the Tea Party summer, the smart set still didn’t see how the future would unfold. I remember seeing an analysis from an investment bank which confidently predicted that the House would stay in Democratic hands. Oops.
[snip]
But if Trump’s energy, enthusiasm and vision prevails in November, look for Republicans to catch a ride and recapture the House majority. Waves are hard to see in September but rise up quickly in November.
But still, a blue wave seems like a serious stretch, even if the polling is a little off.
I'm going to have to go with pipe dream, and I say this as someone who completely misread things in 2016, but who did see what was happening in 2010. FWIW.
