Post by Optimus on Sept 24, 2020 11:58:31 GMT -5
This analysis on Five Thirty Eight is really interesting. I was just discussing with my roommate last night that Trump does better with black voters than Romney did and those numbers have slightly gone up since 2016. I was guessing that it was mainly driven by younger black voters, but this article adds a lot more depth to the topic: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-partisan-gender-and-generational-differences-among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/
It won't copy here (because it's not an image file), but if you scroll down to the table labeled, "The divide between older and younger Black voters," you'll find some really interesting generational divergences among black voters.
Here are the ones I found kind of surprising (numbers are ages: "18-29," "60+," and "Overall")"
Democratic Party is “welcoming” to Black Americans 47 76 61
Trust congressional Democrats to “do what is best” for Black people 43 73 57
I do not always like Trump’s policies, but I like the way he shows strength and defies the establishment. 35 10 30
Definitely motivated to vote 29 78 55
Trust congressional Republicans to do “what is best” for Black people 29 8 21
GOP is “welcoming” to Black Americans 28 7 22
So, less than half of younger black voters think that the Dems are "welcoming" to black Americans or trust the Dems to do what is right for them compared to an average of 75% among older black Americans. At least 30% of younger black Americans have favorable views of the Republican party on a number of issues, compared to single digits among older black Americans.
This has interesting implications for the Dems over the next decade or two and could fundamentally disrupt the traditional assumptions of our current two-party system in terms of how each major party appeals to and interacts with a diverse electorate.
The polling by both HIT and AARC in particular tell a fairly clear story: Older Black people are more clearly partisan Democrats than younger Black people, both viewing the Democratic Party and its leaders much more favorably than younger Black people and viewing the GOP with more disdain than younger Black people. Among Black registered voters age 50 and older, 75 percent said they thought congressional Democrats were doing a good job, compared to just 22 percent who thought congressional Democrats were doing a poor job, according to a HIT survey conducted in June. But among Black voters under age 50, only about half (54 percent) approved of congressional Democrats, while 36 percent disapproved. Black voters under 50 (57 percent) were more likely than those 50 and over (40 percent) to agree with the statement, “The Democratic Party takes Black people for granted,” according to HIT polling.
It won't copy here (because it's not an image file), but if you scroll down to the table labeled, "The divide between older and younger Black voters," you'll find some really interesting generational divergences among black voters.
Here are the ones I found kind of surprising (numbers are ages: "18-29," "60+," and "Overall")"
Democratic Party is “welcoming” to Black Americans 47 76 61
Trust congressional Democrats to “do what is best” for Black people 43 73 57
I do not always like Trump’s policies, but I like the way he shows strength and defies the establishment. 35 10 30
Definitely motivated to vote 29 78 55
Trust congressional Republicans to do “what is best” for Black people 29 8 21
GOP is “welcoming” to Black Americans 28 7 22
So, less than half of younger black voters think that the Dems are "welcoming" to black Americans or trust the Dems to do what is right for them compared to an average of 75% among older black Americans. At least 30% of younger black Americans have favorable views of the Republican party on a number of issues, compared to single digits among older black Americans.
This has interesting implications for the Dems over the next decade or two and could fundamentally disrupt the traditional assumptions of our current two-party system in terms of how each major party appeals to and interacts with a diverse electorate.