2020 Elections, aside from Presidency

Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham in South Carolina’s high-profile U.S. Senate race, brought in more money in the last full fundraising quarter of the contest than any Senate candidate over a similar period in American history. By a lot.

With a staggering $57 million haul from July through September, Harrison shattered the three-month record set in 2018 by Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who was challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and brought in $38 million in his final full quarter of that race.

The extraordinary amount, announced by Harrison’s campaign Sunday, brings his total for the race to $86 million, multiples more than any South Carolina candidate ever and far outpacing Graham’s own fundraising, which would be considered formidable in any previous election cycle. Harrison’s haul so far passed the $80 million O’Rourke raised for his 2018 entire campaign.

With 5,876 regularly scheduled legislative races in 44 states, the big surprise is that, so far, only two chambers—the New Hampshire House and Senate—changed hands. The GOP won both. New Hampshire is perhaps the nation’s swingiest state, with one or both chambers flipping in six of the last eight elections.

On average, 12 chambers change party in each general election cycle. This time? It’s four—including 2019’s shift for the Virginia House and Senate (from R to D) and this year’s New Hampshire news. (If either the Arizona House or Senate flips from R to D, the numbers change—and the counting isn’t over yet.) That means over the two-year cycle, the parties came to a draw.

[snip]

Factoring governors in, far more state governments are divided than legislatures. The GOP gained control of all three power positions in two states this year: New Hampshire and Montana, where the new Republican governor replaced the outgoing Democratic governor. That gives the GOP 23 states, compared to the Democrats’ control of 15 states. In 11 states, one power position is held by a different party than the other two. Eleven is the lowest split government control since 1952. In the 2000s, the number of splits was always 20 or higher.

-6D, +6R.

Again, these aren’t specific predictions, and I hope I’ve sufficiently emphasized the uncertainties in many states. This is simply meant to illustrate what modest redistricting, combined with the demands of reapportionment, are likely to lead to. Assuming that Republicans win at least 212 seats in the ensuing Congress, this will probably be enough to gain them the majority, without even contemplating more aggressive redrawings, the national mood, or the tendency toward midterm loss for the party holding the presidency.