The critical and expensive Senate race in North Carolina, central to determining which party controls the upper chamber, was thrown into uncertainty this weekend.
Within the span of just a few hours on Friday, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis announced that he had tested positive for the coronavirus, while his Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, acknowledged and apologized for exchanging sexually suggestive text messages with a woman who is not his wife.
Well okay, maybe Tillis is just unlucky here, but still.
Cunningham is an unbelievable dumbass, however. He's got two kids, the woman he's sexting with is married with children and her husband is a vet. Even worse, the "sexting" is positively lame...
Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham in South Carolina’s high-profile U.S. Senate race, brought in more money in the last full fundraising quarter of the contest than any Senate candidate over a similar period in American history. By a lot.
With a staggering $57 million haul from July through September, Harrison shattered the three-month record set in 2018 by Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who was challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and brought in $38 million in his final full quarter of that race.
The extraordinary amount, announced by Harrison’s campaign Sunday, brings his total for the race to $86 million, multiples more than any South Carolina candidate ever and far outpacing Graham’s own fundraising, which would be considered formidable in any previous election cycle. Harrison’s haul so far passed the $80 million O’Rourke raised for his 2018 entire campaign.
I guess that whole "too much money in politics" thing is fully dead and buried now, huh?
Moderate House Democrats lashed out at their liberal colleagues Thursday, using a marathon caucus-wide conference call to bash progressives for advancing an agenda that, the centrists said, cost the party a number of seats in Tuesday’s elections.
An impassioned Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who squeaked to victory in central Virginia, took liberals to task for promoting the policy of redirecting funds away from police departments, an idea that took off following the death of George Floyd in May — and that Republicans used on the campaign trail to hammer Democrats with charges of nurturing crime.
Spanberger called the Democrats’ campaign strategy “a failure.”
“I do disagree, Abigail, that it was a failure,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) interjected. “We won the House.”
Wow. The fact that Pelosi--who proved herself out of touch during the pandemic--can't even attempt some honest evaluation is telling. They "won the House" In an election where the polls had them crushing everything in sight, they held on to the House. they lost seats, they set themselves up to get absolutely creamed in 2022:
Heading into the elections, party leaders had predicted they would pick up seats, even in deep red districts won soundly by Trump in 2016. Instead, they saw Republicans knock off at least seven Democratic incumbents, most of them first-term lawmakers who had helped deliver the party’s House majority just two years ago. And as of Thursday afternoon they’d failed to flip even a single seat held by a Republican incumbent — a trend that defied both their internal polls and most conservative expectations.
On Wednesday, the results were not yet final, but the National Conference of State Legislatures, which tracks state-level races, said there were changes or potential shifts of control in just four chambers: the New Hampshire House and Senate, which Republicans took back from Democrats, and possibly the House and Senate in Arizona, though the contests for those chambers were still too close to call. He said it was the first time since 1946 that so few chambers were changing hands.
I think that Covid saved the Democrats' collective asses. Seriously. If it hadn't been for Covid, Trump would have beaten Biden easily and the Repubs might have actually regained control of the House.
With 5,876 regularly scheduled legislative races in 44 states, the big surprise is that, so far, only two chambers—the New Hampshire House and Senate—changed hands. The GOP won both. New Hampshire is perhaps the nation’s swingiest state, with one or both chambers flipping in six of the last eight elections.
On average, 12 chambers change party in each general election cycle. This time? It’s four—including 2019’s shift for the Virginia House and Senate (from R to D) and this year’s New Hampshire news. (If either the Arizona House or Senate flips from R to D, the numbers change—and the counting isn’t over yet.) That means over the two-year cycle, the parties came to a draw.
Factoring governors in, far more state governments are divided than legislatures. The GOP gained control of all three power positions in two states this year: New Hampshire and Montana, where the new Republican governor replaced the outgoing Democratic governor. That gives the GOP 23 states, compared to the Democrats’ control of 15 states. In 11 states, one power position is held by a different party than the other two. Eleven is the lowest split government control since 1952. In the 2000s, the number of splits was always 20 or higher.
Anyone hoping for some Dem-favoring redistricting can forget about it.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis fended off a tough battle to win a second term against Democrat Cal Cunningham, prevailing in a race Democrats had hoped to pick up in their quest to recapture the majority.
Tillis won 49%-47%, or by about 100,000 votes out of more than 5.3 million cast, a slightly wider margin than President Donald Trump's lead in the Tar Heel State.
“The voters have spoken and I respect their decision," Cunningham said Tuesday in a news release shortly after calling Tillis to concede.
And there’s the official projection of the Senate race in North Carolina from our colleagues at ABC News. The outcome here certainly comes as a surprise; Cunningham led in the polls all cycle long — even after it was revealed that he had sexted with a woman who was not his wife — and he ended with a 68 in 100 chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast.
What the ever-loving-fuck?!? It "comes as a surprise" because "Cunningham led in the polls." Hello, McFly, where have you been for the last week? Any race that actually followed the polls would come as a surprise. Idiot.
Last Edit: Nov 10, 2020 16:36:23 GMT -5 by robeiae
Analysis for 2023 Congress: reapportionment and a modest redistricting, Part 1 and Part 2
Again, these aren’t specific predictions, and I hope I’ve sufficiently emphasized the uncertainties in many states. This is simply meant to illustrate what modest redistricting, combined with the demands of reapportionment, are likely to lead to. Assuming that Republicans win at least 212 seats in the ensuing Congress, this will probably be enough to gain them the majority, without even contemplating more aggressive redrawings, the national mood, or the tendency toward midterm loss for the party holding the presidency.
Again, Trende is assuming there's no massive redistricting done in any States. So he thinks that reapportionment and just a little expected redistricting in some States would essentially flip the House, all other things being equal.
I'm telling ya, the 2022 midterms are gonna be just brutal for the Dems. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Repubs end up with close to 250 seats.
Anyhoo, potential Mensa candidate AOC seems to think that the Dems losing 6 or 7 seats (so far) in the House means they've now lost the majority. Apparently, her Justice Democrats handlers forgot to feed Manchurian Candidate her lines that day:
AOC held a virtual town hall meeting Thursday night, during which a constituent asked her to weigh in on Democratic losses during this year’s election.
“I’m in your district in East Elmhurst, and I have a general question about the House, and why did we lose so many seats, and what needs to be done to get them back next term?” read the question from an unidentified constituent.
“So, you know of course, the loss of the House majority is just extraordinarily upsetting to all of us,” Ocasio-Cortez replied, and then made clear she understood the implications of such a loss by adding “It’s upsetting to all of us who are invested in having a Democratic majority so that we can expand healthcare, so that we can raise wages, so that we can protect working people.”
But Democrats, while they did lose a lot of seats, have secured their majority with projected wins in 219 seats. It’s literally the first result when you Google “Democratic House majority.”