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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 10:04:19 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Jan 5, 2021 14:04:25 GMT -5
Given the unreliability of polling demonstrated in the past two elections, I'm not making any predictions (though I hope Perdue and Loeffler lose). I'd like to think it's a toss-up but honestly have no idea what to think.
Should be interesting to watch the results and tomorrow's spin, though.
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Post by Optimus on Jan 5, 2021 19:58:20 GMT -5
It's only 8 o'clock, but so far both Dems are up with 54% of the vote each. Looking good for both of them but I know the night is young.
Fingers crossed it stays this way.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 20:17:47 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm hoping for a split. I kind of fear complete control by the Dems because they're all so willing to go along with some of the progressive nonsense. But I don't like Purdue at all, so I want him to lose. Yet, I think both Loeffler and Warnock are crap, so...
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 20:39:38 GMT -5
This is good info and suggests the Dems will win both:
Yeaaaaaaah...I'm gonna go ahead and call both races for the Dems.
And I guess Manchin will remain something of a bulwark against the extremes. I can live with that for two years.
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Post by Optimus on Jan 5, 2021 21:09:42 GMT -5
I dunno, Ossoff and Perdue are now at 50/50, and Warnock is down to 51%. I'm not sure what's going on with the mail in ballots though. Have they already been counted? I'm also not sure which counties are left that might significantly swing things in one direction or the other. I'm not following it too closely because I'm working on a paper, but I have ABC's coverage on in the background. If someone else is following things more closely and can break it down for me, that'd be great.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 21:14:20 GMT -5
Well, the Dems are still in line for the 2am 100,000 magic bonus votes, right?
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 21:18:12 GMT -5
More seriously, I think the early votes are all mostly counted, but there are still a lot of votes around Atlanta to come in and the numbers there are heavy for the Dems. I don't see a path for the Repubs.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 21:23:30 GMT -5
Here's Trende again:
In another tweet, he says he's at 90% confidence for the Dems to both win.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 5, 2021 22:05:50 GMT -5
Ha, I was ahead of the curve!
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Post by Optimus on Jan 5, 2021 22:19:56 GMT -5
Yet...Perdue is currently ahead by nearly 100,000 and Loeffler is suddenly ahead by 69,000.
84% of vote is in and I suppose anything is possible within that remaining 16%, given how many lead changes there have been.
But...I dunno.
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Post by Optimus on Jan 5, 2021 23:01:30 GMT -5
Only 9% of the votes left to count and Perdue's and Loeffler's leads are holding. I think a lot of the remaining votes are from the Atlanta area? Not sure though. If that's the case, then perhaps the Dems can make comebacks. But, Perdue's lead is over 100,000 and Loeffler's is over 70,000, so the remaining 9% needs to go overwhelmingly for the Dems if they hope to win. Given that the votes will supposedly come from the metro Atlanta area (and Savannah), it's certainly plausible that they'll heavily favor the Dems, but I dunno. I'm a bit uneasy about how things will go.
Places like NYT still projecting the Dems to win both seats, but I'm still not convinced.
Also, based on the asymmetry in vote deficits, it's interesting that some of the Repubs voted for Perdue but not for Loeffler.
EDITED TO ADD:
Well, F me, I guess. Warnock has somehow found about 100,000 votes in the past 15 minutes and is now ahead by 20K. Perdue's lead down to roughly 20K also.
We've got barn burner on our hands, kids. It's like the election version of a Rocky Balboa fight.
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Post by michaelw on Jan 6, 2021 6:38:39 GMT -5
Looks like Ossoff and Warnock both won.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 6, 2021 7:58:47 GMT -5
Warnock has won, most certainly. But Ossoff and Perdue is still neck and neck.
I just don't know anymore. These mystery vote drops--which aren't nefarious at all, but are just now a "feature" of the computer voting machine + mail-in ballots system--make it next to impossible to predict results.
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Post by robeiae on Jan 6, 2021 10:14:32 GMT -5
What the ever-loving...
That's a tweet from the sitting governor of Michigan.
Why? For what purpose? To prove she's a fucking idiot?
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