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Post by robeiae on Feb 9, 2017 17:29:56 GMT -5
From Molly Ball at The Atlantic: www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/02/resistance-tea-party/516105/I remember the tea party. And it doesn't feel like deja vu at all to me. Ball's "history" of the tea party is also somewhat revisionist, imo. She gets most of the essential facts down, but kinda gets the timeline mixed up. Here's an old piece (an excerpt from a book) on the beginnings of the movement. And she doesn't mention the Occupy Movement, which was supposed to be another tea party movement, according to self-styled experts. But the big difference--for me--is the media: I don't think the media is "misunderstanding" this new movement at all. Indeed, they're a part of it. And that was one of the problems with the Occupy Movement: people in the media insisting that it was a Big Deal, wanting it to be a Big Deal, so they could be a part of it or at least have front row seats. The great majority of the media wasn't even paying attention to the tea party movement in it's early days. If they were, it was only to criticize and mock. And that ultimately fed the movement, imo. Of course, it's still very early. 2018 will ultimately tell the tale. Thoughts?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 17:59:26 GMT -5
I agree with you that the media mostly dissed the Tea Party (which likely fed the movement), and are way on board with this movement.
I also agree it is early days, and that only time can tell for sure whether the current movement has legs.
Finally, I agree with what I think you're at least hinting at -- which is that the Occupy movement didn't have legs.
But I do see a big difference between the Occupy movement and this one.
By and large, the average person was pretty "pfft" about the Occupy movement -- certainly after the first little bit. A bunch of young activists got very revved up, but even they had trouble telling you what they wanted out of it, and to the extent they could, they had not the foggiest clue how one might go about getting there. (To many of us living here in NYC, it quickly became no more than a mere nuisance.) Near as I could tell, the protestors thought 1% of the population had too much money! Those Wall Street types for one! OK, fine. So. What exactly can we do about that? Storm their offices and demand their money? Really -- what? They didn't know. So they blocked subway entrances (preventing 99%ers from getting to work), littered, pissed all over the place, did drugs and got drunk, and made noise). Seriously, that's how it felt in these parts pretty early in the game.
Moreover, most Americans at some level admire successful people, assuming they aren't crooks. Sure, we hate the Madoffs, but I think most of us give props to self-made millionaires and don't particularly resent heirs unless they are jackasses in some ways. Yeah, some do, but most Americans, I submit, don't inherently resent people with lots of money. Certainly not enough to sit around protesting about it. So they didn't get very broad sympathy, certainly not of the kind that lasts.
This movement, on the other hand -- LOTS of people despise Trump. It's not a small group, and those who hate him, hate him a lot. And many see him and his administration as actively hurting things they care about, and/or that directly impact them. They felt that way before the election, and even more so since he got in. It's picked up more steam, sweeping up people who were at least somewhat inclined initially to give him some benefit of the doubt.
(I'm one of them, FWIW. I always disliked him, but was sincerely hoping he'd turn out to be more mainstream conservative once he got in, and that much of his election bluster would turn out to be hot air. But his explosion of executive orders, his cabinet choices, his continual cringe-inducing tweeting, his alternative facts, that execrable Kellyanne Conway -- every day, I find myself getting more concerned about him and our country. And I'm a person who definitely does not feel that way about all conservatives and Republicans. I didn't feel that way about Romney. I don't feel that way about Gorsuch (indeed, I'm inclined to like him, and certainly I respect him). But Trump and Bannon? They scare me!)
This movement is sweeping in friends of mine who are law firm partners, bankers, and federal judges -- people with money and influence, people who don't jump on every bandwagon. They aren't just talking about it -- they're protesting, getting involved, making calls, volunteering, donating.
Whether it will last -- I can't say for sure, but I think it goes way deeper and broader than Occupy ever did. And there is a specific target to aim at: Trump. His orders. His nominees. His tweets. Also Bannon et al. There are congress critters to importune (to the extent they aren't importuning us -- I'm getting emails from Jerry Nadler every other day), in the hopes of blocking some of the damage.
Moving in legal circles as I do, I'm amazed and impressed with how many friends, colleagues, and former classmates are actively involved in this. Literally overnight, immigration lawyers organized to help visa and greencard holders at the airport and to put together habeas petitions on their behalf, and to form groups to train other lawyers so they could help, too. My classmates have been using their influence with Republicans in some position to make a difference. I've never seen anything quite like it.
That being the case, I don't think it's going to die soon or easily. I think it is much more akin to the Tea Party in that respect than to Occupy.
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Post by robeiae on Feb 9, 2017 18:06:33 GMT -5
The death knell for the Occupy Movement was the release of the iPhone 4s. That sucked away half the crowd...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2017 18:08:22 GMT -5
The death knell for the Occupy Movement was the release of the iPhone 4s. That sucked away half the crowd... It was protest or play Angry Birds.
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Post by Optimus on Feb 11, 2017 19:46:01 GMT -5
The Occupy movement failed mainly because it was a disorganized, confused mess with too many uninformed hippies in it that based their position on some vague "Wall Street is evil!" meme rather than on sound, cogent principles.
That's just my biased opinion, though.
I'll be surprised if this Resistance Party actually gets anything done. That's not to say that they don't have a point, but I fear they're in danger of failing for the same reasons that many democrat movements fail; focus and effort.
I've said this before, but the old adage is true: Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. A Republican politician can lie, cheat, and shit all over his/her constituents, but they will still show up to vote him/her into office just because there's an "R" next to the name.
A Democratic politician can whip sizeable groups of people into a frenzy with promises of free tuition, single-payer healthcare, diversity, charity, love, and hugs and lollipops for every person in the world, but many of those people won't show up on election day because "he/she only promised 9 out of 10 things I wanted. I wanted 10/10. That is unacceptable!"
A person has two choices for elections: they can vote or they can pout. As much as I hate to admit it, between Repubs and Dems, the Republicans are not the ones more likely to pout.
I hope the fervor of most of these resistance people can maintain until the 2018 election, but based on the past, the odds aren't good. And that's really unfortunate.
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Post by Christine on Feb 11, 2017 20:34:41 GMT -5
Stuff and nonsense.
Lots of Republicans didn't show up to vote for McCain or Romney. Why didn't they fall in line?
The idea that so many Dems were pouting to the extent that they would allow someone like Trump to be president because Hillary wasn't Bernie is absurd. Sure, there were some pouters, but no more so than Repubs who voted third party or not at all, in the previous two elections.
It was the swing voters. The voters who embody the very things you claim belongs to the Dems -- they fall in love, they vote emotionally, and may I add, they're fucking idiots. 'Scuse my French.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 20:50:52 GMT -5
so...anyone who doesn't fall under one or the other main parties -- and always the same one -- every single time is a fucking idiot?
Someone who, say, voted for Reagan in '80 and Bill Clinton in '92 -- a fucking idiot?
Anyone who votes for a third party, ever -- a fucking idiot?
And they are all "voting emotionally" because it is impossible to be rational unless you just march in and pull the same party lever each and every time, regardless of who is running?
-- Cass, apparently a fucking idiot.
ETA
I didn't vote for Reagan, actually -- was not old enough! But I chose the example of him vs Clinton because I think they're particularly great examples of candidates who won a ton of swing votes. But I don't see that as irrational at all. Both were strong, charismatic leaders -- it's easy for me to understand how someone who prioritized, say, the economy might vote for both men. Not everyone puts social issues first when they vote.
I am, however, someone who has (if you include local elections), voted for Democrats, Republicans and third parties, when I felt that candidate was the best one all round. So if doing so makes me a fucking idiot, there I am.
I usually have ended up pulling the Democrat lever. But not always.
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Post by Christine on Feb 11, 2017 21:00:04 GMT -5
Oh for Christ's sake. We're talking about TRUMP.
I voted for McCain in 2008, and for Johnson in 2012. No, I'm not saying any of what you inferred. FFS.
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Post by Optimus on Feb 11, 2017 21:11:45 GMT -5
Stuff and nonsense. Lots of Republicans didn't show up to vote for McCain or Romney. Why didn't they fall in line? The idea that so many Dems were pouting to the extent that they would allow someone like Trump to be president because Hillary wasn't Bernie is absurd. Sure, there were some pouters, but no more so than Repubs who voted third party or not at all, in the previous two elections. It was the swing voters. The voters who embody the very things you claim belongs to the Dems -- they fall in love, they vote emotionally, and may I add, they're fucking idiots. 'Scuse my French. Your entire argument is fallacious for several factual and logical reasons: 1) The variance range in Republican votes over the last 4 elections has only been roughly 3 million votes. The variance range in Democratic votes over the last 4 elections is 10 million. Therefore, Republican turnout, nationwide, has been pretty consistent. The top of the range was 2016, when even more people turned out to vote for Trump than voted for Bush in 2004. However, 4 million fewer people voted Democrat in this last election than in 2008. cookpolitical.com/story/10174ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/popular-vote/ However, the key thing to keep in mind is that, as a percentage of eligible voters, turnout was actually down this election: fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter-turnout-fell-especially-in-states-that-clinton-won/2) The reason that Trump won was not necessarily independent voters going for Trump, it was the nearly 6 million who voted 3rd party (and the dems who sat at home), especially in the swing states, where Clinton somehow lost pretty much every swing state that Obama won. www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/third-party-voters-played-key-role-election-results*this, of course, is no guarantee that 3rd party voters would have voted for Clinton if Johnson and Stein hadn't become the obviously inept but somehow still bafflingly attractive protest bandwagon candidates of the last election. 3) However, most importantly, your entire argument is a histrionic strawman. I wasn't talking about the Presidential election. I was talking about the upcoming midterms (which I specifically said in my post). Democratic voters are notorious for NOT turning out for midterm elections. This is not a secret. This is a well-known fact, which is why I stated that I was worried about it happening again: www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/bursting-the-democrats-midterm-turnout-bubble.html
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 21:14:35 GMT -5
I don't think it was idiotic to vote third party this election, either, though I ultimately did not.
The only thing I think is dumb is to vote for a candidate who totally goes against everything you believe in over a candidate who does stand for what you believe in.
But that's not really a "swing voter." It's more like a revenge voter.
It's not hard for me to see how someone could dislike both Trump and Clinton enough to go third party or stay home. ( I think there were a lot more voters who did that than, say, Bernie voters who got mad and went Trump.) I'm sorry it worked out that way, since I'd have much preferred to see Clinton win and obviously am not happy about Trump.
ETA:
re: Opty's post:
It makes me crazy that so many people pay no attention to mid-term votes. I really hope people get engaged this time out. Surely the next two years should show why it matters.
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Post by Christine on Feb 11, 2017 21:29:02 GMT -5
3) However, most importantly, your entire argument is a histrionic strawman. I wasn't talking about the Presidential election. I was talking about the upcoming midterms (which I specifically said in my post). Democratic voters are notorious for NOT turning out for midterm elections. This is not a secret. This is a well-known fact, which is why I stated that I was worried about it happening again: www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/bursting-the-democrats-midterm-turnout-bubble.htmlThat was not at all clear from your post. You made broad scale claims about the voting patterns of Repubs and Dems. You didn't specify "midterm" vote patterns. You claimed Repubs "fall in line" and Dems "fall in love," and get pissy if 10/10 of their wants aren't met. That is what I was responding to.
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Post by Optimus on Feb 11, 2017 21:34:46 GMT -5
3) However, most importantly, your entire argument is a histrionic strawman. I wasn't talking about the Presidential election. I was talking about the upcoming midterms (which I specifically said in my post). Democratic voters are notorious for NOT turning out for midterm elections. This is not a secret. This is a well-known fact, which is why I stated that I was worried about it happening again: www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/bursting-the-democrats-midterm-turnout-bubble.htmlThat was not at all clear from your post. You made broad scale claims about the voting patterns of Repubs and Dems. You didn't specify "midterm" vote patterns. You claimed Repubs "fall in line" and Dems "fall in love," and get pissy if 10/10 of their wants aren't met. That is what I was responding to. Yes, I did make broad claims about voting patterns. And, at the end, I specifically applied them to the upcoming 2018 midterms. YOU are the one who took my broad claims (which I gladly backed up with evidence, when you offered none) and characterized them as if they were only about the Presidential election. I still don't think you get how your response was wrong and totally missed my overall point.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 21:36:09 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Feb 11, 2017 21:40:22 GMT -5
Huh, I didn't realize it came from Bill. Learn somethin' new every day. And, I'm chuckling at the jumping-the-gun naivete of Silver's article. Just a few short months after it was written, the Repubs absolutely did fall in line, contrary to pretty much everything he claimed in that article.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 21:42:35 GMT -5
Reading old opinion articles can be great fun.
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