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Post by prozyan on Apr 4, 2020 21:02:28 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Apr 9, 2020 16:34:42 GMT -5
Lots of interesting charts here: www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/09/did_ron_desantis_make_the_right_call_142905.htmlThe article is a semi-defense of DeSantis' decisions. He caught a lot of heat and is still catching it on social media. Indeed, if anyone says something about the lack of a Florida hotspot for Covid-19, one of the auto-reposnses is "Florida isn't testing." But as the above piece shows, Florida is testing as well as a lot of other States, including California. As you all know, I'm in Miami-Dade County. And there just isn't an air of panic down here. The streets are dead, true enough, but people are moving around--walking, running, bike-riding, grocery shopping--with regularity. I have a theory, non-scientist that I am: I think the Covid-19 virus was active in China well before what we know right now. I think, in fact, it was active as early as October, if not September. Consistent with what we know now, most people who were getting it just weren't symptomatic, or had mild symptoms. As such, it made its way to the US (and other countries) much earlier. And New York, Southern Cal, and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale are likely the initial landing spots. I think a ton of people in all three regions caught and--for the most part--got over the virus months ago (in fact, I think my son, my ex-wife, and myself all had it and recovered). It later exploded in New York because of population density, coupled with a high use of public transportation, chiefly among the poorer and at-risk populations, and that's what's driving the death rate in NYC.* I think the virus is close to being burned out in both Southern Cal and South Florida (partly assisted by all the hot sunny days). Doesn't mean there's no more risk in these regions, just that there's little chance of a huge increase in deaths from Covid-19. And if more successful treatments appear in the near future, I think that would signal a time to end the lockdown (though maybe maintain the social distancing and masks, whenever possible). * Again, I'm no scientist and certainly no doctor, but I think it's also possible that there was an over-reliance on ventilators in NYC, as if such devices were absolute life-savers and were maybe used prematurely in a large number of cases.
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Post by Optimus on Apr 10, 2020 13:06:53 GMT -5
I think the Covid-19 virus was active in China well before what we know right now. I think, in fact, it was active as early as October, if not September. There's zero credible evidence to support this. The numbers on asymptomatic cases vary wildly, thus are incredibly misleading. Current estimates range from 5% to 80%, which is basically the same as saying "nobody or everybody." A likely reason for this is inconsistent testing across countries and differences in responses depending on the region. So, based on current evidence, it's misleading (if not outright false) to assert that "most people who are getting it" were asymptomatic. You don't have sufficient evidence to support that claim. I've seen this floating around republican Twitter and, frankly, it's a total conspiracy theory with zero credible evidence to support it. The first (known) reported case was in late November in Wuhan. While it's true that it might've been prevalent in Wuhan before then, it's unlikely that it was already traveling the globe months earlier. The reason we can logically conclude this is because the mortality rate for it is roughly 10 times that of the flu (0.1% for the flu; over 1% to 5% for COVID-19). Only about 1% of flu cases require hospitalization. Compare that to nearly 12% to 14% of COVID-19 cases. Mortality projections for the US alone for the flu are 24,000 to 62,000 for the entire flu season (October 2019 to April 2020), though the final numbers are not in yet (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm). As of today, there are already approximately 17,000 confirmed deaths in the US from COVID-19 in just the past month (first known US death was reported Feb. 29th). The mortality rate of confirmed deaths (16,695) to confirmed cases (463,619) is currently 3.6%, it's tough to know the true mortality rate until more testing is done. However, I think a minimum of 1% is a reasonable estimate, which is still 10 times higher than the flu. If COVID-19 really had, somehow, already been in the US for months, hospitalizations and death rates (for flu-like symptoms in patients who test negative for the flu) would have skyrocketed by end of December of 2019, or in January 2020, or in February 2020. That did not happen (so far as we know), thus we can conclude that this conspiracy theory is not true. I'm sure a lot of people want to believe it, so that they can for whatever reason (likely political) downplay the severity of this pandemic, and maybe pretend that they are immune or otherwise won't be negatively affected by it, but it is indeed a bullshit right-wing conspiracy theory. I think a major contributor was travel from Asian countries to NY. New York City has by far the largest Asian population in the entire country (1/8 of NYC residents are Asian, or just over 1 million out of over 8 million). There were millions of people traveling to/from China for Chinese New Year, and many were likely New Yorkers. That, coupled with the issues you noted of population density, public transportation, and the fact that NYC is basically the city version of a dirty butthole, likely facilitated the spread. Also, don't forget de Blasio and NY's top health official (Barbot) idiotically telling New Yorkers to bravely fight fear of COVID-19 by going out on the town and celebrating, which likely directly contributed to NYC becoming the epicenter of the virus in the US: Also see this: www.newsweek.com/resurfaced-tweets-show-new-york-san-francisco-mayors-strikingly-different-coronavirus-messages-1496431Frankly, the responses from public officials including Trump, de Blasio, and the WHO are shameful and likely cost people their lives. Trump's actions (3 years of ignored warnings, disbanding the entity responsible for pandemic response, slashing funds at the CDC dedicated to pandemic response, etc.), in particular, and his idiotic attempts to downplay it, were egregious and likely directly contributed to this being much worse for the US than it should have been. It is not an exaggeration to say that he is directly responsible for needless deaths: www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-all-the-times-trump-was-warned-about-pandemic-2020-3
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Post by robeiae on Apr 10, 2020 13:54:10 GMT -5
The thing is, when I took my son to the doctor's office for a fever and coughing, he tested negative for the flu. At that point in time, Covid-19 was raging in China and there were cases elsewhere, including in the US. But there was no test available for it, so there was no way to know if he had it (and if both my ex-wife and I then caught it from him). But he arrived from Boston already feeling poorly. My understanding is that if he had Covid-19, he could have caught it anytime in the previous two weeks, which is pushing back to the time when it was barely outside of China. I don't see how this is a "conspiracy theory" at all. I don't think there's any sort of conspiracy. I think that we simply didn't have enough information, nor did we have the ability to test for the virus, when it first arrived in the US. People went to the doctor's office or simply dealt with being sick with over-the-counter medicines. Some people--maybe a lot of people--died, most of whom were elderly and/or had other health issues. And this isn't about downplaying the severity of all of this; as I said, more successful treatments are needed to justify ending the lockdown. We can't all just go back to normalcy. But by the same token, the severity shouldn't be overstated, either. Did you see what Rahm Emanuel's brother--Ezekiel Emanuel-- said on MSNBC? We can't return to normalcy for 12-18 months?!?!?! Ridiculous. He also said this: I'm sorry, but that's overstating things, too. While Covid-19 is not just another kind of flu, it also certainly isn't Ebola or the Black Death. The confirmed case fatality rate in the US is under 4%. In Germany, it's still under 3% (closer to 2%, actually). If you test positive and are neither elderly nor have other serious health problems, you likely won't need hospitalization, at all. So, we have to allow that there's some middle ground here between "flu-like" and "plague-like," no? But that just isn't allowed, because of the zealots on both political sides. Regardless, Florida was supposed to be a hotspot weeks ago, because--supposedly--De Santis was a moron and no one was following the rules. But it just hasn't happened, even with large elderly populations and heavy international travel. People say "Florida isn't testing," yet Florida is on par with California when it comes to testing(and California hasn't become a hotspot, either). Oh, and FYI on Asian popualtions: it depends were you draw lines. The greater LA metro area has more Asians than any other region. And California has--far and away--the most Asians of any State (and the highest percentage of Asians, outside of Hawaii). New York is a distant second, Texas is third.
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Post by Optimus on Apr 10, 2020 14:50:02 GMT -5
The thing is, when I took my son to the doctor's office for a fever and coughing, he tested negative for the flu. At that point in time, Covid-19 was raging in China and there were cases elsewhere, including in the US. But there was no test available for it, so there was no way to know if he had it (and if both my ex-wife and I then caught it from him). But he arrived from Boston already feeling poorly. My understanding is that if he had Covid-19, he could have caught it anytime in the previous two weeks, which is pushing back to the time when it was barely outside of China. nCOVID-19 isn't the only coronavirus out there (indeed, the common cold is a coronovirus). Your son could have had one of any number of ailments that aren't the flu. But, to go from "well, it wasn't the flu, and COVID-19 was already raging in China, therefore that must be what he had, therefore we must have all had it in my family, therefore it's been in the US since at least September or October" is quite a logical leap, and one that strains credulity. It's, at least in part, a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. It's a conspiracy theory because there's little (if any) evidence to support it, yet I've seen it pushed on conservative Twitter as though it is a reasonable explanation, if not a verified fact. Your assertions seem to rely on a lot of unsupported assumptions, personal anecdotes, and "maybes." The fact is that nCOVID-19 is at least 10 times as deadly as the flu and simple math rules out it being prevalent in the States before February. Unless, of course, you think that there's some magical RNA sequence in it that somehow switched on in February to make it go from simply making people feel sick to killing them in greater numbers? If it were in the US before February, where are the dramatically increased death numbers attributed to flu-like symptoms in people who tested negative for the flu? This really is an Occam's Razor situation, i.e., the simplest answer is that your hypothesis is wrong and that it wasn't in the US before February. It seems like it is for the people I've seen on Twitter who have posted similar ideas. I agree, but that's kind of a red herring to my point. His main point seemed to be that we won't reach a point of normalcy in the same way that we have for the flu, as in (as he said), being able to go out to restaurants, ball games, etc. without worrying about another outbreak. I agree that he's likely being too doom-and-gloom about it, but I agree with the point that it will be quite some time before we reach a point where there's minimal public anxiety about this. We currently have no safety net, viable treatment intervention, or even a good plan for the foreseeable future. I doubt that will be true 12 months from now, but it seems like it will be for at least the next 4 to 6, given how this is playing out so far and how long clinical trials take. You're ignoring the contagiousness of it. Bubonic plague was a different set of circumstances, most having to do with the state of medicine, sanitation, and cleanliness in the 14th century, so I don't feel it's a relevant example for current pandemics. Ebola is deadlier but also has a lower transmission rate than nCOVID-19 (average person with Ebola spreads it to 2 people; average for COVID-19 is currently 2.5 to 3.5). So, while Ebola kills a higher proportion, COVID-19 infects a higher percentage. Indeed, the last outbreak of Ebola only would up infecting 28,600 people and killed 11,325 over a 2 year period. That's a staggeringly high mortality rate (close to 50%), but that's also in a place with relatively inferior medical care. In contrast, the US has relatively superior medical care, and COVID-19 has already killed 17,000 people in less than 2 months. We also still have no idea if having it an recovering offers any kind of immunity to it (it'll likely mutate in the same way that common cold and influenza do), whether a vaccine can be created at all, etc. So, while I agree that we shouldn't overreact, I'm not sure what overreacting really looks like in this situation. Whatever the case, I think we need to err much more on the side of caution than inaction. I think it's too early to tell either way, and the responses in California versus Florida have been markedly different. Give it another two weeks, and I think we'll have a better idea. However, viruses apparently don't travel as well in hotter, humid places and pockets of Florida have both heat and humidity whereas California only has heat (but also cold at night) and almost no humidity. So the divergent results could be a function of several factors. For instance, it could be the case that the more dramatic measures taken in California are working because they need them, whereas the initially more lax approach in Florida has worked out so far for them because environmental conditions aren't as kind to the spread of COVID-19. These types of differences (coupled with differences in medical care quality and access) might also help explain the varying mortality rates in different geographic areas across the world. I don't know, though, because this isn't my area. I'm only guessing. But, as I said, only time will tell and it's currently too early to draw any firm conclusions.
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Post by robeiae on Apr 10, 2020 15:49:35 GMT -5
While it's true that I don't know if my son had Covid-19 (or if I had Covid-19), the reality of my experiences as a parent are a consideration, here. I'm not just going from "well, it wasn't the flu, therefore it must have been Covid-19" (and I guess I should have mentioned that his doctor really wanted to test him for Covid-19, but had no access to testing at that point in time). I've been taking kids to the doctor for 20+ years and this was the first time where the doctor had no answer available for what he had, given the severity of the symptoms (which weren't so severe to require hospitalization). Sure, it absolutely could have been something else. But given that Covid-19 was already here, the doctor wanted to test him, and his symptoms were in line with Covid-19, it's not the stretch you are making it out to be, imo. I understand that antibody tests should be available soon, so I guess we'll find out at some point in time.
And I'm not ignoring the contagiousness of Covid-19 at all. That--coupled with the fact that it is far deadlier than the flu--is what makes it much, much worse than the flu. Still, testing positive for Covid-19 is not the death sentence that Emanuel was implying, that was my point, which you kinda side-stepped.
And I still think there are a lot of people who ARE overstating the dangers and are overreacting or trying to argue for what I would consider to be overreactions. Again, I'm all in on the lockdown, on the social distancing, even on the masks in public (which I think is something that should have happened much sooner). But I'm also all in on analyzing the situation on a daily basis. Saying we "may" have to live like this for an extended period of time is fine, saying we "must" or "absolutely will" is not.
I was just talking to a friend of mine--yes, another anecdote--who is a single mom in her 30's with a kid. She works as a bartender. And she's pretty scared, both of getting sick and dying (and of her son doing the same) and of how she's going to pay the rent, feed herself and her kid, and so on. I don't have any answers for her when it comes to the latter stuff, and neither do the politcos on the right or on the left (one check from the IRS is hardly gonna cover her lost income). But what I did tell her--and I think it was fair of me to say this--was to not be scared shitless of Covid-19, to keep following the guidelines that the state is setting out. Because even if she or her son were to get infected, they're unlikely to die, to even need hospitalization. It's a virus whose symptoms can still be treated by over-the-counter medicines (obviously, one needs to go to the doctor and/or the hospital if things keep getting worse, just like with other viruses).
Not enough people are saying that, imo. And the fear out there is not helpful. Indeed, it may even be harmful.
That's something enough people aren't saying
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Post by Optimus on Apr 10, 2020 18:26:46 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Apr 12, 2020 11:01:23 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Apr 12, 2020 11:41:08 GMT -5
To be clear, I don't doubt that it was already here before the first reported diagnosis. Even though one doctor in the article says that it could've been in San Francisco (not Florida, mind you) "far sooner" than what they thought, he never really defines what "far sooner" means, except that December is alluded to, and most of the evidence in the article suggests possibly January. I could believe it was already here in early to mid December, but I don't consider December to be "far sooner" than February, and I doubt that most reasonable people would either.
My objection was to your claim that it was here as far back as "early October, if not September." There's still no evidence to support that. Doesn't mean that eventually there won't be, but I'd rather have some solid evidence before believing that kind of a claim.
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Post by Optimus on Apr 12, 2020 16:16:07 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Apr 13, 2020 9:14:06 GMT -5
To be clear, I don't doubt that it was already here before the first reported diagnosis. Even though one doctor in the article says that it could've been in San Francisco (not Florida, mind you) "far sooner" than what they thought, he never really defines what "far sooner" means, except that December is alluded to, and most of the evidence in the article suggests possibly January. I could believe it was already here in early to mid December, but I don't consider December to be "far sooner" than February, and I doubt that most reasonable people would either. My objection was to your claim that it was here as far back as "early October, if not September." There's still no evidence to support that. Doesn't mean that eventually there won't be, but I'd rather have some solid evidence before believing that kind of a claim. To be fair--to me--my theory is that it was probably active in China as far back as October, if not September. Which means it would have made its way to the US (and other countries) much earlier than has been supposed.
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Post by michaelw on Apr 13, 2020 20:17:12 GMT -5
What do you guys think about all the #FireFauci stuff?
I have a couple of people in my newsfeed who seem to think Trump should get rid of Fauci. Given Trump's propensity for firing people, it doesn't seem that unrealistic, IMO. What do you think would happen if Trump went that route?
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Post by robeiae on Apr 13, 2020 21:12:10 GMT -5
I don't have any idea what would happen if Trump did that. But that's because I really don't really have any idea on what The Plan is, from a local, to state, to federal level. And it's not like one can watch Trump's press conferences, other politicians, or the news networks to get an idea in this regard. Everyone is too invested in pointing fingers and assigning blame.
That said, I don't think Trump is going to git rid of Fauci right now.
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Post by robeiae on Apr 14, 2020 13:01:33 GMT -5
The stupid in this twitter thread is unbelievable:
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Post by prozyan on Apr 16, 2020 10:36:16 GMT -5
The stupid in this twitter thread is unbelievable: The bolded describes twitter in general. Its nothing but a vapid echo chamber.
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