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Post by robeiae on Jun 20, 2017 9:12:02 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 12:39:42 GMT -5
Ossoff, narrowly. Optimistic thinking -- I want the Dems to gain power in Congress as a counter to Trump. But I think there's a good shot he'll win.
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Post by Optimus on Jun 20, 2017 14:26:20 GMT -5
Handel, narrowly. I'd rather Ossoff win, but I'm being realistically pessimistic about this one based on how most other elections have gone and I have very little faith in Georgia voters. Win or lose, Dems will spin this as a positive. If he wins, then this might signal a small step in the right direction, though I have no doubt that MSNBC will portray winning this one small election as indicative of a larger "cultural shift." If Ossoff loses by a little, then they'll likely still celebrate it as an " almost win." Sadly, it seems recently that they only positive news they rally around is when they don't lose as bad as they thought they would, which is a lot like a constantly bullied kid celebrating that the school yard bully only knocked them down in the mud this time but at least they didn't also steal their lunch money too. |
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Post by robeiae on Jun 20, 2017 14:48:29 GMT -5
Considering how much money they've poured into this, I don't think it's going to be easy to spin a loss, no matter how slim.
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Post by Optimus on Jun 20, 2017 19:14:44 GMT -5
There's also a close race in SC right now and the pessimist in me thinks the GOP will barely eek out a victory in that one, too.
I hope I'm wrong on both of these races...but I ain't holding my breath.
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Post by robeiae on Jun 20, 2017 21:05:42 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Jun 20, 2017 21:11:08 GMT -5
Updated results: www.wsbtv.com/election-resultsLooks over to me. Handel is up by over 10,000 votes with the remaining precincts in the two counties where she is strongest. If it stays this way, she'll win by four points or more, meaning the polls were off base yet again. |
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Post by robeiae on Jun 20, 2017 21:14:11 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Jun 20, 2017 22:11:36 GMT -5
I just watched Steve Kornacki on MSNBC take nearly 5 minutes to explain how the GOP "only won by 3 points in South Carolina tonight" and described it as a "huge gain" for Democrats.
Just like I predicted.
Thanks, Steve. I can set my watch now.
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Post by robeiae on Jun 21, 2017 6:35:42 GMT -5
This is hilarious: www.cnn.com/2017/06/21/politics/democrats-georgia-elections-analysis/index.htmlBwahahahahahaha! Riiiiiight...Presidents pick people for positions based on how "safe" the seat they are vacating is. And this dumbass was chief of staff to two Veeps??? Anyway, did Kornacki say 3 points? Because it was 6 points. ETA: nope, sorry. It was apparently 3 points. The local source I linked to apparently didn't update the vote total after all precincts had reported and a winner was declared. My bad. This race got a huge cash injection from Dems because they thought they had a great shot of winning it, since Trump only topped Clinton by 1.5 points in the Presidential election. It was a horrible result for the Dems, imo. It proves that making the election about Trump isn't the magic pill that they were hoping it would be. They can still make big gains in 2018, but this election is, I think, strong evidence that retaking the House is a pipe dream. |
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Post by Vince524 on Jun 21, 2017 11:38:49 GMT -5
People who vote R normally aren't going to decide because of Trump to vote D. If people are unhappy at midterms, the people who vary between R&D will switch, and it may influence turnout, but Trump's awfulness isn't going to make people vote against someone who's not Trump that they think agrees with their politics.
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Post by Vince524 on Jun 21, 2017 11:42:15 GMT -5
Also, I can't get on Twitter here at work, except on my phone, but some of the vile things I'm seeing about her, much if it having to do with this being the first F**k she's gotten in years.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2017 13:29:45 GMT -5
This isn't a good result for Dems. But I disagree that it's a horrible result, or that it's a particularly good result for Repubs. This is a seat they carried not long ago by something like a 20 point spread, if memory serves. They carried it this time by a 3 point spread. This is a district where normally speaking Dems wouldn't be anywhere fucking close. The fact that they were IMO bodes ill for the Repubs in districts where it is closer.
2018, the deck is stacked against Dems. But 2020... IMO Trump is doing serious, lasting damage to the Repubs among more serious conservatives, including many who helped their nose in 2016.
You know what I'd like? I'd like us to do a France -- new party with charismatic candidate that center left and center right can stomach. I don't know if we'll get that, but I do think Trump is not going to get that second term.
Btw, I've both been really busy and just got a new computer which is taking me a zillion years to get set up, transfer files, etc. Damn Windows 10 got rid of that nifty file transfer feature that used to make it so easy to migrate files.
Anyway. Will be back by the weekend.
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Post by robeiae on Jun 21, 2017 14:12:54 GMT -5
This isn't a good result for Dems. But I disagree that it's a horrible result, or that it's a particularly good result for Repubs. This is a seat they carried not long ago by something like a 20 point spread, if memory serves. They carried it this time by a 3 point spread. This is a district where normally speaking Dems wouldn't be anywhere fucking close. The fact that they were IMO bodes ill for the Repubs in districts where it is closer. I agree that this isn't some huge positive for the Repubs, but it most definitely is a good result for them. How can you say it's not? They won a race where their candidate was substantially outspent and was trailing in the polls up until the day before the election. And in that respect, it is a horrible result for the Dems. They went all out here. They picked this specific race to go all out by fundraising like mad for Ossoff all over the country. And he--they--lost. Sure, Price won that seat by over 20 points in 2016, but he held that seat for over a decade. His opponent in 2016 was little more than a sacrificial lamb. But even as Price won easily, Trump only beat Clinton by, what, 1.5 percentage points? The Dem leadership banked on those numbers being fully translatable. And you now what, they probably were, insofar as the turnout was way up for this special election, as compared to a midterm. Yet it was still down as compared to a Presidential election. Given the efforts put in by the Dems, it's fairly reasonable to suppose that most of that increased turnout benefited the Dem, no? And do you think they'll be able to spend this kind of dough for hundreds of seats in 2018? Doubt it. I'd wager that in 2018, Handel holds the seat by 10 or more points (assuming she doesn't get indicted or the like). |
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Post by robeiae on Jun 21, 2017 16:31:10 GMT -5
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