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Post by prozyan on Oct 5, 2018 7:47:03 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 10:50:43 GMT -5
Lisa Murkowski is a "no" on Kavanaugh.
I've tweeted to thank her. She might be the only GOP holdout, it might make no difference (or it could sway Collins and Flake...), but it took some courage to buck her party and she gets points from me. I also have, as I've said, more faith in her backbone than in Flake's.
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Post by prozyan on Oct 5, 2018 10:55:26 GMT -5
You trade a Murkowski for a Manchin....
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:07:01 GMT -5
You trade a Murkowski for a Manchin.... Well, Manchin voted yes to advance the nomination. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll vote to confirm. If Murkowski had also voted yes to advance the nomination, I would have felt a lot more negative. But here's the thing -- since Heidi Heitcamp is a "no", Manchin would be the sole Democrat voting "yes." If all Republicans were voting "yes", well, he probably would be okay voting "yes" because the Republicans could easily push through the nomination without him. That's the way he rolls. But as it is, with Murkowski a no, he quite likely could be the deciding vote. (Doubly true if they want it done Saturday, since one GOP Senator will be at his daughter's wedding.) In any case, he'd be the lone Democrat voting yes. ETA: Flake is a yes. Once again, he disappoints me. It's all down to either Collins or Manchin.
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Post by Amadan on Oct 5, 2018 11:11:08 GMT -5
Well, Manchin voted yes to advance the nomination. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll vote to confirm. If Murkowski had also voted yes to advance the nomination, I would have felt a lot more negative. But here's the thing -- since Heidi Heitcamp is a "no", Manchin would be the sole Democrat voting "yes." If all Republicans were voting "yes", well, he probably would be okay voting "yes" because the Republicans could easily push through the nomination without him. That's the way he rolls. But as it is, with Murkowski a no, he quite likely could be the deciding vote. (Doubly true if they want it done Saturday, since one GOP Senator will be at his daughter's wedding.) In any case, he'd be the lone Democrat voting yes. ETA: Flake is a yes. Once again, he disappoints me. It's all down to either Collins or Manchin. I think you're grasping at straws. It's over.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:19:39 GMT -5
I'm gonna give Lisa her due. She's been getting a full court press from McConnell et al. It clearly wasn't easy for her. But she made the right call IMO, and whether you agree with her decision or not (I for one agree with her decision, though I don't necessarily 100% agree with everything she said), I think one has to give her some respect for the reasons she made the decision she did and her courage in making it.
Her statement in the tweet below.
I also don't think, after this statement, that McConnell or Trump stands a prayer of moving her. She's got some bulldog in her, and there isn't any wavering room in this, IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:24:50 GMT -5
Well, Manchin voted yes to advance the nomination. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll vote to confirm. If Murkowski had also voted yes to advance the nomination, I would have felt a lot more negative. But here's the thing -- since Heidi Heitcamp is a "no", Manchin would be the sole Democrat voting "yes." If all Republicans were voting "yes", well, he probably would be okay voting "yes" because the Republicans could easily push through the nomination without him. That's the way he rolls. But as it is, with Murkowski a no, he quite likely could be the deciding vote. (Doubly true if they want it done Saturday, since one GOP Senator will be at his daughter's wedding.) In any case, he'd be the lone Democrat voting yes. ETA: Flake is a yes. Once again, he disappoints me. It's all down to either Collins or Manchin. I think you're grasping at straws. It's over. Maybe. I honestly am not sure what Collins and Manchin will do, but the Murkowski thing leads me to hope. As I recall, everyone said I was grasping at straws on the healthcare vote when I predicted McCain would maverick. Everyone told me that the Stormy Daniels thing was a big shrug, and said I was naive when I predicted it would end up being about way more than whether the president slept with a porn star. I can't be sure what will happen here. I'm not predicting anything, since I can easily see either Collins or Manchin going either way. But my record for when I think there's hope, etc. is not bad; certainly no worse than anyone else's, as far as I can see. And we only need one of them to be a no. ETA: To note, if Collins says yes, her Democratic opponent is going to get approximately a million dollars for his or her campaign. She's been under huge pressure from women's groups, sex assault victim groups, and pro-choice groups. She had the courage to stand up for the health care vote. She has it in her to buck her party. Murkowski's vote puts additional pressure on her and gives her some cover. Yes, Manchin has red state pressure. But on the other hand, being the only Democrat to vote yes, being the deciding vote -- if he loses the Democrats, he isn't gonna win his election either. People will not forget. I continue to hope. As McCain demonstrated, voting to advance the vote to the floor is not the same as ultimately voting yes.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:27:02 GMT -5
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Post by prozyan on Oct 5, 2018 11:31:04 GMT -5
So original rating....does that mean "Well Qualified"?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:35:24 GMT -5
So original rating....does that mean "Well Qualified"? Yes, I believe so. And for now, it stands. But he is under review. And the ABA wants the Senate to know it before they vote.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 11:48:00 GMT -5
I think you're grasping at straws. It's over. Maybe. I honestly am not sure what Collins and Manchin will do, but the Murkowski thing leads me to hope. As I recall, everyone said I was grasping at straws on the healthcare vote when I predicted McCain would maverick. Everyone told me that the Stormy Daniels thing was a big shrug, and said I was naive when I predicted it would end up being about way more than whether the president slept with a porn star. I can't be sure what will happen here. I'm not predicting anything, since I can easily see either Collins or Manchin going either way. But my record for when I think there's hope, etc. is not bad; certainly no worse than anyone else's, as far as I can see. And we only need one of them to be a no. ETA: To note, if Collins says yes, her Democratic opponent is going to get approximately a million dollars for his or her campaign. She's been under huge pressure from women's groups, sex assault victim groups, and pro-choice groups. She had the courage to stand up for the health care vote. She has it in her to buck her party. Murkowski's vote puts additional pressure on her and gives her some cover. Yes, Manchin has red state pressure. But on the other hand, being the only Democrat to vote yes, being the deciding vote -- if he loses the Democrats, he isn't gonna win his election either. People will not forget. I continue to hope. As McCain demonstrated, voting to advance the vote to the floor is not the same as ultimately voting yes. To add to this -- There are a few factors here -- the political calculations of senators who presumably will seek re-election, whatever their own consciences say about Kavanaugh, and whatever their own consciences say about the integrity of the institutions and process. The first calculation often, alas, would overcome the other two factors. But here, I'm not at all sure that political calculations all go in the direction of confirming Kavanaugh. Collins may not be happy about that fund for her opponent, she may not like the pressure she is getting -- but it all goes to show that voting "yes" may hurt her at least as badly as voting yes, which may put the other two factors into stronger focus. Clearly Murkowski and Heitcamp thought they weighed against Kavanaugh's confirmation. Flake, it would seem, went the other way. To some extent, the same is true for Manchin. He might infuriate voters either way. I don't think voting "yes" necessarily helps him more than it hurts him at this point. And Murkowski has given them some cover if they need it.
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Post by prozyan on Oct 5, 2018 11:50:41 GMT -5
Collins is going to announce her intentions at 1PM est. Need both Collins and Manchin to vote no. If there is only 1 the process will go on a bit longer but the end game would be an inevitable Kavanaugh confirmation.
ETA: Whoops, meant 3PM est. That's 1PM my local time.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 12:08:32 GMT -5
Collins is going to announce her intentions at 1PM est. Need both Collins and Manchin to vote no. If there is only 1 the process will go on a bit longer but the end game would be an inevitable Kavanaugh confirmation. I press "refresh" a lot these days... This is so painful.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 12:27:30 GMT -5
I have to say -- if it came down to Pence's vote being required to decide this, it would really be quite extraordinary. (And I think rotten optics for Republicans, pushing through an unpopular, controversial nominee for a lifetime spot on the Supreme Court only by the VP being a tie breaker -- especially as the Trump administration itself is under a cloud of controversies.)
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Post by prozyan on Oct 5, 2018 12:30:56 GMT -5
I agree. If only Republican leadership gave two shits about optics.
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