Varying murder rates in the US | THE COLLINE GATE—Thoughtful Political Discussion

robeiae
Thaumaturge

On a down bound train

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Varying murder rates in the US May 3, 2017 7:53:01 GMT -5

Post by robeiae on May 3, 2017 7:53:01 GMT -5

Interesting piece at Real Clear Policy: www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2017/05/03/murder_isnt_a_nationwide_problem_110234.html

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54 percent of counties (with 11 percent of the population) had no murders. 69 percent of counties had no more than one murder, and about 20 percent of the population and only 4 percent of all murders in the country.

The worst 1 percent of counties have 19 percent of the population and 37 percent of the murders in 2014. The worst 2 percent of counties contain 47 percent of the population and accounted for 51 percent of the murders. 68 percent of the murders occurred in only 5 percent of counties.

The graphics are stunning.

Yet, the piece--imo--doesn't offer enough on population density, at all. Because murder is still a crime of opportunity. Can't kill someone if you're standing alone in the middle of a field...

There's also a little something at the end of the piece, which I leave for others (Don?) to comment on, if they are so inclined.

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Don
Illuminati

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Varying murder rates in the US May 3, 2017 9:00:18 GMT -5 celawson likes this

Post by Don on May 3, 2017 9:00:18 GMT -5

I notice that the RCP version left out the most interesting map from the original publication:

I can't help but notice the similarity to this map:

I guess the part you left for me was this:

According to a 2013 PEW Research Center survey, the household gun ownership rate in rural areas was 2.11 times greater than in urban areas (“Why Own a Gun? Protection is Now Top Reason,” PEW Research Center, March 12, 2013). Suburban households are 28.6% more likely to own guns than urban households. Despite lower gun ownership, urban areas experience much higher murder rates. One should not put much weight on this purely “cross-sectional” evidence over one point in time and many factors determine murder rates, but it is still interesting to note that so much of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.

That's just another nail in the gun control coffin, IMO. I'd also like to see a third map, colored to indicate the severity of gun control laws by county. I'd bet a goodly amount that map would parallel the two shown above. Of course, the Brady Bunch will continue to ignore the obvious in pursuit of their illogical agenda.

Last Edit: May 3, 2017 9:37:06 GMT -5 by Don

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Economics puts parameters on people’s utopias. ~Peter Boettke
"It's the voter's fault" is victim-blaming in its purest sense. ~Don
The 'social contract' is to the politician what 'original sin' is to the priest. ~Don
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Optimus
Illuminati

Posts: 2,508

Varying murder rates in the US May 3, 2017 10:27:46 GMT -5 Don likes this

Post by Optimus on May 3, 2017 10:27:46 GMT -5

Although it can be somewhat inferred to the map (but not with a high degree of accuracy), I think it would've been more informative to also include not only population density (like Rob suggested), but also income level.

We already know there's a well-established correlation between poverty and crime but I think that would probably mostly apply to more densely populated cities. There are plenty of empty rural counties (which explains why there's little to no murder there), but there are also rural counties with plenty of people, but they are lower-income.

At least where I live, we all know to avoid "that/those part(s) of town," especially at night, because that's where most of the crime happens (and they also happen to be the poorest parts of town). But, "those parts of town" don't really seem to exist out in the rural areas around here (I live in the South, btw).

If those variables were included in the map and the analysis, I don't think it'd reveal too much that we didn't already suspect, but I think it would be even more eye-opening for a lot of people.

It seems to me that the parts of town the cops avoid the most are often the ones where they're most needed.

Last Edit: May 3, 2017 10:30:57 GMT -5 by Optimus

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