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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2018 14:58:53 GMT -5
I am so monumentally exhausted and terrified and disheartened, I just don't think, after all, that I have the heart to try to make anyone who isn't feeling the same way feel as shitty as I do. Having watched my stock portfolio circle down the drain this morning, what energy I have left is probably better spent trying to get myself in the Christmas spirit.
So I'll just say this, at least for now.
Sure, as I've been saying since 2016, Trump is a loose cannon and no one can control him. That's why Mattis quit, actually--he was only there because he hoped to be a restraining, guiding force, and it's pretty clear he's sending the nation a message, loud and clear -- I can't control this jackass; no one can.
But.
Sure, there are areas where Mattis did not succeed in stopping/restraining/tempering Trump, but there are areas where he was more successful. We're still in NATO, for example. And we almost certainly do not know of all of the things that have occurred.
Then there are the things that will come up, and that he won't be there to stop. Mattis had a standing command that in the event a nuclear incident loomed, he was to be contacted first. Don't know about you, but if such a thing occurred, or if there was a terrorist attack, or if any major crisis happened, I'd feel a shitload better with an adult there who at least attempts to steer Trump rather than the useless sycophants he's otherwise surrounded with.
Our allies trust him. His presence gave them some confidence and someone sane to consult and deal with. It was one bulwark that might keep Trump's baby hands off the nuclear button or launching some other lunatic strike. Now who is there?
And on Syria, I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I've said what I'm gonna say, at least for now. Maybe someone else has more energy. But you might ask yourself why our allies are freaking our and our military is freaking out and middle east experts are freaking out if in fact those troops don't matter and we can just yank 'em out any time without a problem. I think they're right to freak out. I think ISIS is going to come surging back, stronger than ever, gaining new recruits furious at us. Our allies will trust us that much less. We will lose our influence in the region, while Putin and Erdogan gain it. If that seems like a nothingburger to you, or a non-danger, I really doubt I can convince you otherwise.
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Post by prozyan on Dec 24, 2018 19:25:03 GMT -5
First, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone. I hope your 2019 is better than your 2018, no matter how good your 2018 was!
I've looked back over my posts and I wasn't exactly clear in my message.
I agree with Mikey and Michael that bringing troops home isn't a bad thing. At heart I'm a military isolationist. Having served in the military and having been to some pretty nasty places, seen some pretty nasty things and in full honesty done some pretty nasty things I wish America's military would spend more time within our own borders than policing the world.
That said, I agree with Cass that this pull out of Syria isn't a good idea. Not necessarily that the general idea of pull out is bad idea but rather that the way it is being executed is a bad idea. I would be thrilled if Trump had said "We're done in Syria. By September 1, 2019, all US forces will be withdrawn." He did not. This action seems like a knee jerk reaction to me, and that is rarely good.
I do share dismay over Gen. Mattis's resignation simply because I like the man. That said, I did not and do not see him as a shining knight that was keeping us off the brink of nuclear war. I do think Gen. Mattis was good at his job and one hell of a military commander. I think one of the best things Trump has done as President is leave military actions and decisions up to the military commanders, much more so than Obama or Clinton did or even Bush. That said, I would have felt better about the withdrawal if Trump would have continued in this manner, stating his goal of withdrawing troops and letting the military leaders decide the time frame and manner of withdrawal. I can't get upset over Gen. Mattis's resignation because, as he said in his resignation letter, the President DOES deserve a cabinet whose views generally align with the President's views. That goes for any President.
I can't get behind Cass's fear that Gen. Mattis leaving will somehow inch us closer to WW3 or nuclear holocaust. In my view, Trump has been fairly dovish regarding military action on the world stage. I think a Clinton administration would have seen us in much more danger of war than this one. Sure, Trump is impulsive and reckless in some of his actions. But I haven't seen anything that makes me think he's quick to resort to military action. As I said, he seems fairly dovish to me. Compare that to Hillary Clinton, who may be the biggest war hawk the US has seen in a generation. So I can't get behind the war fear.
Besides, the basic fact is Mattis had no power to stop anything if Trump decided it was the course of action he wanted, including nuclear strikes. Gen. Mattis retiring doesn't put us in any more danger than we were before. All it does is strip away the illusion some people had that there was a backstop to Trump's impulsiveness.
Yes, I think Syria and the region in general is going to descend into chaos. I think ISIS will surge back. I think all this will happen because it is in the interests of those we are leaving the region to, Turkey and Russia, to have chaos there. That said, I'm far from convinced the right answer would be leaving American forces in the region in perpetuity.
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Post by michaelw on Dec 24, 2018 19:55:35 GMT -5
But you might ask yourself why our allies are freaking our and our military is freaking out and middle east experts are freaking out if in fact those troops don't matter and we can just yank 'em out any time without a problem. I think they're right to freak out. Middle East experts. Ay yay yay. I cannot believe that after Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria, people are still listening to the war-hawks. Thank god most Americans seem to have become exhausted by it all. I dunno if the US presence in Syria was really having much effect on ISIS, one way or the other. It certainly did in Iraq, though. Just not the way we wanted. Who are our allies in this area? Al Nusra? (We did give them weapons at one point.) Turkey? (They are part of NATO, after all.) Saudi Arabia? (They might carry out mass murder in Yemen, murder journalists, etc, but hey, they're against Assad, so I'm really aggrieved that they're not happy.) Israel? (That one is more plausible, but they don't seem to be as fazed by this as others.) the Kurds? (They are the real losers here, but to say they will trust us less is to insult their intelligence, IMO. They could not possibly have really trusted us, given their history with the US. As I said, I'd still support a Kurdish state, so I'm much more on their side than pretty much any US president to date.) Putin already won, in case that wasn't clear. Does it have to be a a non-danger? Surely we're not so unfamiliar with either/or fallacies at this point, no?
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Post by michaelw on Dec 24, 2018 21:02:41 GMT -5
All it does is strip away the illusion some people had that there was a backstop to Trump's impulsiveness. That's a good way of putting it. And when you put it like that, it makes me think Mattis leaving might be a good thing, in a sense. Or at least, it's a good thing to the extent that holding onto illusions is a bad thing.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2018 11:55:15 GMT -5
A couple of things:
(1) On Syria:
IF what were happening was a measured, planned withdrawal from Syria, done because Mattis and the people who actually have some concept of what's happening there thought that our mission was done there, or that we could do no further good, I would not be freaking out. But that is NOT what is happening. Obviously it is abrupt. Ant the fact that Mattis is willing to quit over it (and Prozyan, I'm betting you at least will agree with me that Mattis is not the guy to just peevishly up and quit) and publicly voice his dissent with the decision tells me that it was absolutely NOT done pursuant to discussions of what is going on there.
And MichaelW, even taking aside our immediate allies involved in this particular mission, this is further proof to ALL of our allies that we can't be relied on. I don't know about you, but when I see a friend fuck over another friend, my thought isn't "oh, well, nothing to do with me", it's "yeah, if she did it to him, she'll do it to me; she cannot be trusted." I cannot see why ANY ally would trust us at this point. I'm serious. I wouldn't. I'm not even sure I'd trust us after Trump leaves office, because the mere fact we could elect this bozo and continue to allow him to run amok would raise serious concerns about it happening again in a few years.
Abrupt, premature military yank-outs don't go well. We've done this before, and it leads to worse conditions in the area -- which leads to more unrest, terror, oppression, etc., which all to often leads to our going there again on yet another mission... rinse, repeat. What we too often do, we Americans, is like saying "hey, you know your kitchen is a disaster. Imma remodel for you." We go in there (whether asked or not) with our sledgehammers and tear up the kitchen -- but then we leave without remodeling, leaving them with broken appliances and a ripped up floor and gouges in the walls. The rats and roaches move in, then some thug contractor comes in to address the mess we left.
Having gone in in the first place, we have an obligation not to just leave smashed up chaos in our wake.
I also think it's just possible we need a long-time presence in the area to ensure that the aforementioned thug contractors don't take over -- both for our interests and for those of our allies in the middle east.
Finally, while I don't want us invading everywhere for no good reason, I also think that historically isolationism has worked out poorly for us and for everyone.
(2) On Mattis:
This isn't even just about Mattis's absence (which I think is bad enough in this admin, and will be sorely felt). It is also about the way in which Mattis did it -- that letter -- which was unquestionably to send us all a message: "I know you peeps were counting on me to rein this dude in and steer him, but I can't. No one can. It's hopeless." IMO, Mattis would not have done that if he didn't think it was dire. I think we pretend otherwise at our peril.
Look, if I thought that his leaving would cause the Republican powers-that-be to say "oh shit, we were wrong that Mattis et al could contain and steer Trump. The last of the grown-ups is gone, and now we're left with Trump unleashed and oh, fuck what is he DOING, we need to act" and it led to them growing a spine, and the Senate joining with the House to remove Trump or at least act like a co-equal branch and exercise some power to restrain him, I'd be "okay, Mattis leaving is gonna be bad short-term, but maybe ultimately it's for the best." I can't tell you how happy I'd be to see some of the apologists say "yeah, ya know, we wanted the judges and the tax plan, but this is just too fucked up and we've got to do something."
But I've given up hope on that. I think what will happen is this. Behind the scenes and/or anonymously, the smarter, saner GOP powers that be are indeed freaking out. But they're terrified of losing power and more afraid of Trump's 25% or so of the electorate than they are of the rest of us. Plus they have the unfortunate human trait of looking for reasons to justify themselves rather than saying, "look, we fucked up, let's do what we can to fix it."
So alas, I'm betting they do absolutely jack shit.
And now, with Mattis and the grownups gone, and Acting Sycophants in their place (to the extent anyone is in their place -- a shitload of important positions remain open), Trump can really let loose. Because he's not just reluctant to admit, "look, I fucked up" -- he is incapable of it. The worse things get, the more he will double-down, lie, and blame everyone else. The Dem house will do what they can, investigations will continue etc., but the Senate Republicans and the sycophant cabinet will continue to enable. And as long as they do, the bulk of the GOP base will say "well, it must not be as bad as it looks because if it were, Someone would Do Something." Fox News and the Federalist will continue to enable. Most of the country, including a good portion of Republicans, will actually think it's horrible, but GOPers in power will continue to kowtow to the relatively small percentage of the country that are hardcore Trump supporters.
It will be bad enough if no major crisis comes from outside, simply because, as we've seen, Trump and his goons MANUFACTURE crises. Look at this last couple of months, even just this last couple of days. But if something really YUUUUGGGE happens (and unless we're damn lucky, it will, because how many presidents have NOT faced a major crisis), the person handling it will be Trump, sans Mattis, sans Kelly, sans any sane voice in his ear to brief him, advise him, exercise even a modicum of restraint. Imagine 9/11, but with Trump (and no Mattis).
And let's not kid ourselves that any other grown-ups will step in. No one good wants to work with this guy. The smart people know they'll do no good, and most likely all they'll do is tarnish their own reputation and get kicked in the rear on the way out the door. The eagles are not coming to rescue us.
Very unfortunately, hearing you all say "pfft, it's no biggie" doesn't reassure me; it makes me more worried still. Because it is my feeling that the one thing that might save us from disaster is a national consensus that "yeah, this is bad. we've got to act." We finally got that with Nixon (and IMO that wasn't even in a league with what's happening here, nor was Nixon in a league with Trump). But if a significant proportion of people are all "meh, yeah, he's an idiot, but whatever, we haven't quite gone off the cliff yet" -- ignoring that we are in fact heading off that cliff and need someone to grab the wheel -- yeah, I think we are fucked. And not just for the next two years.
So the more I hear "pfft, he's an ass, but whatever" or "okay, maybe he's not perfect, but it'll be okay because of x smart person [and when he's fired, y person, and when she quits, z person], the more I despair that we're going to prevent a lasting disaster.
This to me, is like watching a toddler run around with scissors and a lighter, and everyone just saying "it's okay, he's only stabbed the cat so far. And you know, I never liked those drapes anyhow. When he kills granny and sets the house on fire, we'll worry. Hey, what say we go grab a beer." Trump's a toddler. With scissors and a lighter. Stabbing the cat was bad enough, but it's very, very obvious he's going to inevitably do worse.
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Post by mikey on Dec 25, 2018 12:48:21 GMT -5
It seems to me that when the south surrendered at Appomattox, that was also a disaster... for the south. Many other people had a different take on the situation.
Maybe it's too soon to be counting chickens?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2018 13:11:56 GMT -5
That's an inapposite historical comparison followed by an unsuitable metaphor, but sure, I'm totally heartened now.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2018 15:20:44 GMT -5
To add this, with regard to Mattis:
It isn't so much that I thought Mattis could save the day (though I do think having him there helped -- surely having a sane brain, knowledge, and experience on hand, combined with a forceful character, is better than not having it?). Like Prozyan, I have a favorable opinion of him, but also, like Prozyan, I think there's really only so much, at the end of the day, ANYONE can do with Trump. I pretty obviously wasn't one of the people smiling and resting easy because General Mattis had everything under control.
What really has me so upset about the Mattis thing:
(1) that HE came to the conclusion he couldn't do anything and that what Trump was doing was a disaster, one he couldn't stop. That's terrifying. Mattis fucking agrees with me. For him, to that conclusion, for HIM to quit (however Breitbart will try to paint him, he's no petulant crybaby and his sense of duty is very strong) -- wow. I conclude it's at LEAST as bad as I thought.
(2) All of the decent brand of Trump supporters (by which I mean the ones who aren't just out to smash things up, the ones who actually do care about most of the things I care about, who aren't racists, ignoramuses, etc. -- and yes, c.e., I put you squarely in that category, just so you know) talk about how everything was fine because Mattis, Kelly, etc. were there, steering him. Yes, Trump himself was a loose cannon, but he had all these Good People, these Grownups, and those people would make sure everything went fine. So, yeah, the implication there, to me, was that if they weren't there, those people agreed the scenario of Trump Minus Grownups = Bad. Except, of course, that wouldn't happen.
Except that it has. That's our world now. I had some feeble hope that when it did happen (and yes, I thought it likely eventually would) that lots of those people would say, "oh, fuck no! This is awful!" Especially if, say, when that happened it was accompanied by a decision that most establishment Republicans and conservatives think is bad (which the Syria decision assuredly is.) Especially if the stock market were crashing, largely because of a bunch of totally irrational, unnecessary words and actions on the part of Trump and Mnuchin (that crazy fucking phone call to the banks, ye gods).
But I don't think that's happening. I wish to hell it were, but I think what is happening is that most of them are either shutting up or scrambling for excuses.
And that dissolves my last hope that maybe we'll do something before this wheel-less bus goes over a cliff. Unfortunately. I think we are going to have to land in a crashing flaming heap, mangled and burning, before people say, um, gee, maybe we should do something.
This isn't just One Li'l Thing we can parse. This is A Couple of Big Things that Are Part of a Much Bigger Mess. And I don't think we can afford to wait to see what else Trump stabs or sets on fire.
Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. This has been another episode of Why I Am So Upset, by CassandraW.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2018 16:30:53 GMT -5
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Post by michaelw on Dec 25, 2018 19:37:03 GMT -5
And MichaelW, even taking aside our immediate allies involved in this particular mission, this is further proof to ALL of our allies that we can't be relied on. I don't know about you, but when I see a friend fuck over another friend, my thought isn't "oh, well, nothing to do with me", it's "yeah, if she did it to him, she'll do it to me; she cannot be trusted." I cannot see why ANY ally would trust us at this point. I couldn't agree more. But I was going much farther than that (hence my brief history lesson on the Kurds.) Trust is a word that should hardly ever get thrown around when talking about international relations, lest the user be thought overly naive. It's all about shared interests, real or perceived. If our relations w/ the Kurds had been rooted in trust, that partnership would've ended years ago, long before Trump showed up. Same for our relations w/ many other countries, as well. Maybe even all of them, since as you noted, the ones who don't suffer mistreatment have the examples of others. I couldn't agree more. But of course, that should mean we have much greater obligations elsewhere. Take what you just said. That applies much more to Iraq than it does to Syria, right? Iraq was a stable--if highly autocratic--state which descended into chaos following the US invasion. Syria on the other hand was already in chaos when we went in. If we tore up the kitchen, so to speak, then what did others do there? Not in Syria, specifically. ISIS, while they might gain back territory in some pockets, isn't going to take over the country. Russia has made it very clear that Asad is going to stay in power.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2018 19:55:00 GMT -5
I couldn't agree more. But I was going much farther than that (hence my brief history lesson on the Kurds.) Trust is a word that should hardly ever get thrown around when talking about international relations, lest the user be thought overly naive. It's all about shared interests, real or perceived. If our relations w/ the Kurds had been rooted in trust, that partnership would've ended years ago, long before Trump showed up. Same for our relations w/ many other countries, as well. Maybe even all of them, since as you noted, the ones who don't suffer mistreatment have the examples of others. It is one thing to think of our own interests first. That's more or less expected. Of course we are not talking "trust" in the same terms as if we were talking about a five-year-old with his mom. What's not okay is for us to act in an erratic, abrupt, irrational fashion, ignoring our own intelligence, military strategists and leaders, allies, etc., and instead seem to be dancing to the tune of Erdogan and Putin. That's what I mean when I say they cannot trust us. Especially with "the grownups" gone, we are no longer a rational actor on the world stage. Our allies can't count on their secrets not being blurted out to Putin in a meeting, intentionally or no. If Trump says he'll sign an agreement, they can't count on him to have the same opinion five minutes later. They can't count on him to understand the way trade relations work, or how NATO works, or indeed how anything works. We might say "yeah, we're staying out of that" -- but then a clip comes on Fox News and suddenly we're dropping bombs. We settle in with troops -- then suddenly, out of the blue, we pull out, without a clear reason (and to the delight of Erdogan and Putin). And it's obviously not strategy. The strategists are quitting. It's whim and whatever Hannity and Tucker are spewing that day. They went from dealing with a grownup nation to dealing with a giant, extremely dangerous toddler with scissors and a lighter.
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Post by michaelw on Dec 25, 2018 21:59:11 GMT -5
What's not okay is for us to act in an erratic, abrupt, irrational fashion, ignoring our own intelligence, military strategists and leaders, allies, etc., and instead seem to be dancing to the tune of Erdogan and Putin. This perfectly illustrates the absurdity of the position we're in, IMO. On the one hand, you have our allies, and then on the other hand, there's Erdogan (and Putin). Yet, Turkey is also our ally. Even Obama called them an ally. And apparently, we have to stay in Syria for an indeterminate length of time, at an indeterminate cost, in order to keep our allies from killing our other allies. What a mess. I agree. Of course, that was clear to me long before this particular action. In my view, the lack of justification for being there was a good enough reason for leaving. I get all the arguments about staying the course, you're already pregnant, you can't unring that bell, etc. But you still needed a clear vision from the top (that being the commander in chief), in order to justify a continued presence there. I'm not sure Mattis or other military people had a clear vision, either. And the soldiers who are putting their lives on the line are owed that, IMO. Instead, we're told by people who supposedly know better that it doesn't matter that there was no clear vision for moving forward. We're told by people who know better that it doesn't matter if the American public opposes intervention by a wide margin. We're told it doesn't matter that Congress hasn't given authorization, even though they could have done so at any time, not just before the start of involvement. We're told it doesn't matter that we can't be told how much time we would have to invest, or at what cost. Ridiculous.
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Post by celawson on Dec 26, 2018 19:39:25 GMT -5
Well, at least Cassandra’s stock portfolio circled back up the drain today. (and a little more than that).
And my husband’s 5 family members who stayed with us the last few days are departing soon and I can collapse. Never cooked back to back holiday meals for multiple guests before. (I don’t recommend it.)
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Post by prozyan on Dec 26, 2018 19:57:33 GMT -5
Well, at least Cassandra’s stock portfolio circled back up the drain today. (and a little more than that). Heh, no, it really didn't. Long way to go for most retirement portfolios to recover.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2018 14:18:38 GMT -5
Well, at least Cassandra’s stock portfolio circled back up the drain today. (and a little more than that). Heh, no, it really didn't. Long way to go for most retirement portfolios to recover. Indeed. Markets plummeted again today. We're in for tremendous volatility, and seem to be facing a downward trend. Certainly, the tax cut for billionaires does not seem to have buoyed the market, though it has buoyed our debt. It's almost like the markets don't like having an impulsive toddler in the Oval Office who makes decisions on a dime and slaps tariffs willy-nilly on our trading partners.
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