Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 9:56:09 GMT -5
Agree. And I just don't see how it is they can't see that -- especially if they do give a damn about issues.
Come on, people -- you can help shape things.
|
|
|
Post by Optimus on Oct 10, 2018 10:07:24 GMT -5
Well, here's hoping Swift really does help get some young people to vote. The Parkland kids are out there trying to drum them up, too. Looks like voter registration got the ol' "T-Swift bump:" www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/us/politics/taylor-swift-voter-registration.htmlThat's nationwide, but TN, specifically, also saw a substantial surge: Whether one is love, hate, or "meh" about her, the significant positive impact she just had on registrations is undeniable. I should also note that these numbers are only from Vote.org. It doesn't include data from in-person voter registration or online registration through state gov websites (though, given that she specifically gave Vote.org's info, I wouldn't guess that the influx of online voters not using that pathway was nearly as substantial in number).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 11:15:53 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of her music, but like NT, I am almost inclined to forgive her for that "September" cover. And let's be clear, I really hate that September cover.
I doubt very much Kanye gave Trump a similar bump -- at least partly because Kanye clearly is more than a bit whackadoodle. (Lindsay Lohan probably wouldn't have much of an effect either...)
|
|
|
Post by Optimus on Oct 10, 2018 12:15:04 GMT -5
Unfortunately, it seems the Kavanaugh hearings might have given the GOP a bump in voter enthusiasm enough to cancel out most of the Dem's momentum. So, Kanye isn't really needed anyway.
I hope not, but that seems to be what recent polls are suggesting.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 12:56:12 GMT -5
I've actually seen polls going both ways on this.
I've no doubt Kav got the conservative base temporarily revved up. But. Assuming the Kav bump is a thing: The Kavanaugh hearings just happened. It's a month until midterms, Trump will continue being Trump, and I don't foresee any other Supreme Court positions opening up to get conservatives all excited. There is a lot to piss off liberals and motivate them, and the Kav thing (according to those same polls) was actually a big yuuugely turnoff to women not in the diehard Republican base.
I'd bet my IRA on Dems taking the House. The Senate -- meh, we'll see. A month is a long time these days.
For me, the conservative "oh, poor widdle Kav" line is pissing me off so much I could fucking scream. I would literally crawl naked over broken glass to vote blue in the midterms.
|
|
|
Post by nighttimer on Oct 10, 2018 15:06:58 GMT -5
Well, here's hoping Swift really does help get some young people to vote. The Parkland kids are out there trying to drum them up, too. Being a little geek who voted early and often, I honestly don't get what's up with the kids who don't vote--in particular, the ones who care enough about issues to march for them. Come on, kids -- you really could change everything. Marching is nice, but you've got to vote. But then, I have a cousin who is pushing 60 who has never cast a vote. He's extremely pro-marijuana and anti-war, among other things. I told him he could vote for candidates who feel the same way about those issues, and that this was the only way to get the laws changed. He said "It shouldn't need a law change. That's just how things should be." You can imagine how crazy it makes me. I've been having that same argument with him for literally years. Anyway. I just don't know how you stir someone out of that kind of apathy. Hopefully Swift helps Make Voting Cool Again (MVCA...hmmmm.) We'll see. History says the power of the youth vote is still more potential than actual. As for the post-Kavanaugh impact upon the election next month, it's doubtlessly true both sides can claim their base has been outraged by what they witnessed and are eager to stampede to the polls and take it out on the other party's candidates. The question is will the satisfaction Republicans got over Kavanaugh's ascension sustain all the way to November 6? Can the rage the Democrats received when Trump and the Senate Judiciary Committee tried to push around a sexual assault survivor. Stay tuned...
|
|
|
Post by celawson on Oct 10, 2018 16:10:40 GMT -5
It's not just the dismay with the bullying tactics Dems used during the Kavanaugh hearings that can help push Repubs to the voting booth, but it's also continued episodes like this: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/10/eric-holder-when-they-go-low-we-kick-them-thats-what-this-new-democratic-party-is-about/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.00966bb4fd21Eric Holder speaking to a group of Democrats tells them Michelle Obama wasn't correct when she said "When they go low, we go high." Holder says, "When they go low, we kick them." If it's not appropriate for a Supreme Court nominee to mildly lose his temper in accusatory and humiliating hearings, then is it appropriate for a former Attorney General of the United States to call for Dems to kick Republicans? But a short video of him saying to kick Republicans, with the crowd chanting "Fight Fight Fight" is what's going around Twitter right now, and how many Republicans seeing that will also see a clip later when he qualifies what he means by kick? And just a few days ago Hilary Clinton said Democrats couldn't afford to be civil until they have their power back. (paraphrasing). IMO, those sorts of statements by mainstream and prominent Dems are going to sustain the red wave better than any satisfaction about K's placement on the SCOTUS.
|
|
|
Post by robeiae on Oct 10, 2018 16:18:21 GMT -5
Reminds me of Obama saying if they bring a knife, we bring a gun.
I don't have a problem with such metaphorical political talk, personally, but most of the people who do only have a problem with it when it's coming from the other side.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 16:48:39 GMT -5
You're not going to get a red wave, c.e. I would place money on it. A lot of money.
Sure, the Republican base is fired up (as is the Democratic base). I truly think Republicans think the views among their own base extend generally, but they don't, I'm quite confident of it. In fact, the Kavanaugh hearings were the final straw driving a few prominent long-time Republicans out of the party altogether. (I've posted a few examples -- could post more.) If you've looked at polls, independents are leaning Democrat. They don't like Trump. Most of the country, outside the Republican base, thought Kav should not be confirmed.
As we see it -- a lot of us -- it was not "Democratic bullying" that was the problem. (Are you also buying the line that Christine Ford is a liar and part of a Democratic plot? Gee, she's apparently been setting it up for an awfully long time... And what is it, exactly, you think the Democrats should have done, given that those allegations were out there?) LOTS of people believed Christine Ford -- according to polls, more than believed Kav. LOTS of people thought Kav behaved inappropriately at his hearing, disqualifyingly so -- not to mention church groups, the ABA, a retired Supreme Court justice, and an overwhelming number of law professors.
No doubt, your base is fired up, and it may well bring more of them out to vote. But the GOP did not win converts here. I haven't seen a single Democrat saying they were so disgusted with what you think were terrible tactics by the Democrats that they plan to vote red. The only people I see saying that are people who were either voting red to begin with or staying home. But I do see independents saying they'll vote blue, and Republicans going so far as to renounce their party affiliation.
The only reason I think the GOP is likely to hang onto the Senate is because of the sheer number of seats they need to defend this time around, and where a lot of those seats are. A few months ago, I would have said Dems didn't have a prayer of doing anything but lose seats. Now...Beto actually stands a prayer against Cruz in freaking Texas. TEXAS. He probably won't win. I mean, it's Texas. But it's astonishing that he's polling as he's polling and drawing the crowds he's drawing.
You don't see that as ominous for your party? Well, that's one of us.
|
|
|
Post by robeiae on Oct 10, 2018 17:11:23 GMT -5
Ominous?
It's a midterm election with a divisive President in the White House. As was said upthread, if the Dems don't make huge gains here, something is seriously wrong with them.
As to the consequences of the Kavanaugh and Ford hearings, I HAVE seen exactly what you haven't seen, Cass: people so annoyed with the Dems that they're considering voting for the Repubs (and I've seen the reverse, as well).
And I'll say--for my part--that as much as I found Dr. Ford believable, as much as I think withdrawing was the right move for Kavanaugh, I also think the non-stop outrage over this is over the top, because regardless of my opinion, we're still talking about an allegation about behavior from over 30 years ago that boils down to he said/she said (and Avenatti's bs doesn't help in this regard, at all), not unlike the Juanita Broderick allegation (which you have so firmly decided is false, right?). So not everyone arrived at the same conclusions in this regard (and sure, personal politics plays a huge part in this for the majority, but not for everyone). I'm probably not going to vote differently because of this, but I can see why some are annoyed by it (the non-stop outrage) and why they might let it influence their vote.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 17:19:15 GMT -5
So are you predicting a "red wave" as c.e. is so happily anticipating? The point of my post was that this is delusional.
Or are you predicting what I'm predicting -- the Dems take the House, the GOP narrowly keeps the Senate?
Also, I can point you to a pile of life-long, prominent, loyal Republicans who've left the party and/or are supporting Democrats for the midterms, and they're doing it out of disgust for the antics of the GOP: Tom Nichols, Jennifer Rubin, Steve Schmidt, Max Boot, Rick Wilson...
Point me to some life-long, prominent, loyal Democrats who are leaving the Democratic party in disgust over Kavanaugh.
ETA:
Also, whatever the fury is on the pro-Kav side, trust me it is matched on the anti-Kav side. I am literally sick with fury over it and so is basically everyone I know.
ETA:
I didn't for a minute dispute that the base on the GOP side is fired up. I don't even dispute that it will likely bring out more of them for the midterms. What I DO dispute is that the result is a "red wave." That's because (1) the Democratic base is AT LEAST as angry and fired up in the opposite direction, and they already had plenty of reasons to be so, (2) I don't think that it's at all that case that a yuge wave of those without a strong partisan leaning are all fired up to vote red over this. Indeed, I think among women especially, it's quite the reverse, (3) I don't think any bump from the Kav thing is likely to last a month, especially as I'm certain Trump will continue to be Trump, (4) I have seen a trend of Republicans leaving the party, but have not been seeing the reverse. (5) the special elections leaned Dem so far, (6) It's generally the case that when you have an unpopular president, his party loses in midterms.
I cannot begin to tell you how astonished I'd be if there were a "red wave."
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2018 17:38:15 GMT -5
Totally anecdotal, obviously, but my Republican mom is planning to vote blue. So is my Republican aunt. That's not a common event around the W family.
(My brother, of course, will vote red. But he'd vote red if the Republican candidate were literally Satan and the Democratic candidate were literally Jesus.)
That's not to say, at all, that there aren't plenty of pro-Kav people. It's just to say, pfft, there's not gonna be a red wave in the midterms.
|
|
|
Post by Amadan on Oct 10, 2018 18:26:32 GMT -5
IMO, those sorts of statements by mainstream and prominent Dems are going to sustain the red wave better than any satisfaction about K's placement on the SCOTUS.
You are so tiresomely like my FB Republican friend who posts every Tweet, meme, and video he can find of anyone on the left saying or doing anything objectionable. He is OUTRAGED!!!!!! Why isn't the Left SPEAKING OUT AGAINST THESE PEOPLE?!?!?! Silence is complicity!!!!
Like you, if I start pointing out all the times that conservatives have said similar things or used similar tactics, he either plays "No true conservative" (i.e., Alt-Righters, white supremacists, paleocons, literal fascists, etc., aren't "really" conservatives - but of course everyone from Marxists to ISIS can be fairly lumped in with the Left ) or else suddenly there are lots of nuanced arguments to differentiate between, say, right wing nuts shooting Democratic politicians and left wing nuts shooting Republican politicians.
You have no intellectual consistency. None.
|
|
|
Post by robeiae on Oct 10, 2018 21:05:43 GMT -5
So are you predicting a "red wave" as c.e. is so happily anticipating? The point of my post was that this is delusional. Or are you predicting what I'm predicting -- the Dems take the House, the GOP narrowly keeps the Senate? I think the Dems will take the House and maybe get to 50-50 in the Senate. But the point of my response was that this--both my prediction and yours--is pretty much expected and has been for some time. It's certainly plausible that the Kavanaugh stuff might be responsible for a few more House seats, but it's equally plausible that from the standpoint of seats won and lost, the Kavanaugh stuff ultimately changed nothing. It's tough to prove, either way. Why? I didn't say such was the case. What I said was that I know people who don't like the continued outrage over Kavanaugh so much that they're planning to vote Repub, just as I know people who are doing the reverse (planning to vote Dem because they're still mad about Kavanaugh). I noted this because you said you haven't seen any such people; they're out there, but maybe they're just not around you. That's all. Oh, I think the anti-Kav side has most of the fury, by a long shot. That's obvious. And why wouldn't they? The pro-Kav side is happy about the final outcome. I don't think there will be a red wave, either. But I think your point (6) is the controlling one, by far. The midterms would be a referendum on the Kavanaugh appointment, they'll be basically typical, under the rubric of a party out of power winning big because a) they're the ones out of power and b) there's a divisive President in the White House.
|
|
|
Post by nighttimer on Oct 10, 2018 22:38:02 GMT -5
It's not just the dismay with the bullying tactics Dems used during the Kavanaugh hearings that can help push Repubs to the voting booth, but it's also continued episodes like this: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/10/eric-holder-when-they-go-low-we-kick-them-thats-what-this-new-democratic-party-is-about/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.00966bb4fd21Eric Holder speaking to a group of Democrats tells them Michelle Obama wasn't correct when she said "When they go low, we go high." Holder says, "When they go low, we kick them." If it's not appropriate for a Supreme Court nominee to mildly lose his temper in accusatory and humiliating hearings, then is it appropriate for a former Attorney General of the United States to call for Dems to kick Republicans? But a short video of him saying to kick Republicans, with the crowd chanting "Fight Fight Fight" is what's going around Twitter right now, and how many Republicans seeing that will also see a clip later when he qualifies what he means by kick? And just a few days ago Hilary Clinton said Democrats couldn't afford to be civil until they have their power back. (paraphrasing). IMO, those sorts of statements by mainstream and prominent Dems are going to sustain the red wave better than any satisfaction about K's placement on the SCOTUS. Please. Stop. With. The. Situational. Outrage. NOW.
The pearl-clutching on your part is old and it is tired, celawson. When Trump says the ugly, petty and hateful stuff he says and tweets and repeats ad nauseum, you can be depended upon to grant him absolution and sigh, "Oh, I wish he hadn't said that." But he DOES say that and he says it over and over and over again in ways that makes Eric Holder sound like Mr. Motherfucking Rogers.
My grandfather was a sharecropper in Georgia who left the state in the middle of the night to escape that form of slavery by another name. My father was the first and only one of 11 children to attend and graduate from college and after doing so the only job he could get was driving a bus at the same university he graduated from. I've worked continuosly since I was 18 years old. My father and I both served in the miltary. How dare a punk-ass, cowardly, pampered little bag of bone spurs and selfish entilement like Donald John Trump call me and my father and grandfather LAZY?
Trump would not last one day in the world my father and grandfather grew up in, so he can go fuck himself with the silver spoon he was born in his ugly mouth and cram it up his fat ass sideways. At some point, celawson, you and everyone like you whom are willing to look the other way whenever Trump says and does things to target one group of Americans in order to please and placate the smaller group of Americans which make up his base, will wake up to the tragic reality that you aided, abetted and enabled the sort of anger, discontent and polarization you so sanctimoniously wring your hands over.
I'm sure there's a way you've explained to your friends and family why you are so supportive of a man who boasts he grabs women by the pussy. I look forward to the day when you share with me how you reconcile this so effortlessly and square that circle.
Reminds me of Obama saying if they bring a knife, we bring a gun. I don't have a problem with such metaphorical political talk, personally, but most of the people who do only have a problem with it when it's coming from the other side.
Personally, I don't have a problem with metaphorical political talk either, but when the Republican Senate Majority Leader says, “One of my proudest moments was when I looked at Barack Obama in the eye and I said, ‘Mr. President, you will not fill this Supreme Court vacancy,’” that's not metaphor, that's OBSTRUCTION.
Ominous? It's a midterm election with a divisive President in the White House. As was said upthread, if the Dems don't make huge gains here, something is seriously wrong with them. As to the consequences of the Kavanaugh and Ford hearings, I HAVE seen exactly what you haven't seen, Cass: people so annoyed with the Dems that they're considering voting for the Repubs (and I've seen the reverse, as well). And I'll say--for my part--that as much as I found Dr. Ford believable, as much as I think withdrawing was the right move for Kavanaugh, I also think the non-stop outrage over this is over the top, because regardless of my opinion, we're still talking about an allegation about behavior from over 30 years ago that boils down to he said/she said (and Avenatti's bs doesn't help in this regard, at all), not unlike the Juanita Broderick allegation (which you have so firmly decided is false, right?). So not everyone arrived at the same conclusions in this regard (and sure, personal politics plays a huge part in this for the majority, but not for everyone). I'm probably not going to vote differently because of this, but I can see why some are annoyed by it (the non-stop outrage) and why they might let it influence their vote. I don't give a shit about Republican annoyance. Not even a little bit. I am done with worrying over what Republicans do and could care less what they are pissed off over. They have their own non-stop outrage fed by President Pussygrabber and the Vast Right-Wing Conglomerate/Conspiracy behind him.
As The Clash put, "Let fury have the hour/Anger can be power/Did you know you can use it?" and the only anger and outrage I care about is my own and those who think as I do. What I'm going to do is vote against every Republican I can cast a balllot against. I don't care if they're the salt of the earth and the Democrat is a total asshole (hello, Bob Menendez!). Anybody with a "R" behind their name is dead to me.
"Non-stop outrage" is the only rational response to a bad-tempered jurist and right-wing activist like Brent Kavanaugh being elevated to the Supreme Court where he will work tirelessly for the next 25-30 years to roll back Roe v. Wade, gut environmental laws and labor unions, shred the thin paper mache wall that separates church and state, empower corporations, disenfranchise people of color of their right to vote, and to just generally be a total shill for the worst and most misanthropic right-wing policies.
Liberals have had quite enough of the non-stop outrage of conservatives. Next month is their best chance to dish some out themselves and I hope they do. Anybody within earshot of me has certainly been reminded, "Let's see if it's so much fun when the rabbit gets the gun."
|
|