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Post by mikey on Nov 3, 2020 22:24:02 GMT -5
Watching TYT, 2016 deja vu all over again
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Post by Optimus on Nov 3, 2020 23:43:04 GMT -5
I was telling my roommate the other day that the Dems were waaaay overconfident (again...as usual) and that I felt that there were a lot more "secret Trump voters" (silent majority) out there than the polls were picking up on.
Apparently I was right because they're all showing up today.
Sometimes I really hate being right.
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Post by Optimus on Nov 3, 2020 23:43:51 GMT -5
Watching TYT, 2016 deja vu all over again Haha, the only pleasure at all that I got from 2016 (because I definitely hated the outcome) was watching the tears flow from the smug elites on MSNBC and TYT last time.
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Post by prozyan on Nov 4, 2020 0:00:56 GMT -5
I was telling my roommate the other day that the Dems were waaaay overconfident (again...as usual) and that I felt that there were a lot more "secret Trump voters" (silent majority) out there than the polls were picking up on. Apparently I was right because they're all showing up today. Sometimes I really hate being right. I think (and hope) we are witnessing the death of political polling.
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Post by Optimus on Nov 4, 2020 0:35:34 GMT -5
Nate Silver's career is currently on suicide watch.
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Post by Optimus on Nov 4, 2020 0:36:40 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but looking at this map, if Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania and either Michigan or NC, then he's likely toast.
And, unfortunately, I'm thinking he ain't winning Michigan or NC.
Edited to add:
I'll throw Wisconsin in there too because I just saw that they haven't started counting their mail-in ballots yet. Trump is ahead now but depending on their mail-ins, it could be more of a toss up.
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Post by Optimus on Nov 4, 2020 4:55:57 GMT -5
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Post by robeiae on Nov 4, 2020 7:32:58 GMT -5
Right now, the Repubs look poised to hold the Senate and possibly gain some seats in the House. That's pretty surprising, I think, and points to just how awful both Trump and Biden really are. Because some of the Repub gains are in places where Trump didn't win, which suggests that neither Biden nor Trump pulled up the down ballot races.
In South Florida, for instance, Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell both lost their seats, even though Miami-Dade County--where they both are--did go for Biden, overall.
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Post by prozyan on Nov 4, 2020 7:45:11 GMT -5
Its looking to me like this is going to come down to the worst case scenario: The clusterfuck that is Pennsylvania being the deciding factor.
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Post by Vince524 on Nov 4, 2020 7:52:16 GMT -5
If the map stays the same, that the light blue & red go solid blue or red, Trump wins. Trump can't lose any of the light reds except Alaska which he's probably ok in, and still win. If Biden loses one of the light blues, he's in big trouble, but he can make it up by stealing a light red.
None of that gobblygook means much, probably.
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Post by michaelw on Nov 4, 2020 9:46:11 GMT -5
Michigan flipped to blue now. Damn, Biden might actually win this thing.
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Post by robeiae on Nov 4, 2020 9:54:47 GMT -5
I foresee recounts, galore...
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Post by robeiae on Nov 4, 2020 10:07:09 GMT -5
This looks really bad, but maybe there's a good explanation:
I mean, 120,000+ new votes come in and every single one of them goes to Biden's column, not one to Trump or to anyone else. Strange.
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Post by robeiae on Nov 4, 2020 10:16:36 GMT -5
Prediction: if Biden wins, 2022 is going to be another 2010. It's going to be a bloodbath, with the Repubs making huge gains in the House to easily take control of it (they may pick up as many as 10 seats in this election), along with a few Senate seats (the Dems are damn lucky that 2022 lines up with mostly Repub seats in play, 22-12).
We're steaming into gridlock, once again.
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Post by mikey on Nov 4, 2020 10:29:06 GMT -5
I foresee recounts, galore... No other choice for ether candidate. The count seems too untrust worthy to both sides
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