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Post by robeiae on Sept 5, 2017 10:22:57 GMT -5
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Post by Don on Sept 5, 2017 16:04:30 GMT -5
We're still on the road, in St. Joseph, MO. We're slowing down a few days so we and Irma don't meet in the middle of FL. robeiae, you and everyone else in the path, take time to make good decisions, but not so long you'll be stuck in traffic. We'd already be headed north if we were at home now.
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Post by haggis on Sept 5, 2017 16:06:54 GMT -5
Stay safe, y'all.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2017 16:13:48 GMT -5
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Post by Optimus on Sept 5, 2017 17:38:48 GMT -5
The conclusion of the study--that female named storms are more deadly because people don't take them seriously--seems to be anecdotally undercut by events related to Harvey and now to Irma. It's also statistically undercut by the fact that it was a shit study and the people who did it don't know how to do statistical analyses properly. It pains me in my cold, dark heart that news organizations still treat it as if it were a legitimate piece of scholarship. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300517
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Post by poetinahat on Sept 5, 2017 19:42:01 GMT -5
Shit.
Opty, Rob, Don, Chrissy, and anyone else down that way, you and yours be well, hey?
And if you see a couple of chipper-looking seniors who might look vaguely like me -- smile and say hi to the Inahat ancestors, all right? They need to make it through the next two weeks - and make that flight out to Sydney. I mean, my vacation is already booked.
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Post by Optimus on Sept 5, 2017 20:46:55 GMT -5
Thanks, Poet. I actually just moved to Canada at the end of last week, so I get to avoid Irma (if it happens to go up through the Gulf and South). I have several friends and family in the paths of Harvey and now possibly Irma, so I'm hoping they all remain safe. My TX friends were, thankfully, far enough north in the state that they avoided a lot of the damage. I can't imagine what the people in Houston are having to go through. It's pretty scary stuff. I used to live in the Florida panhandle and, though I miss it sometimes, I'm kind of glad I don't. I only lived down there for 3 years, but I got evacuated for hurricanes 5 times - one of those times was for Hurricane Ivan, which pretty much leveled half the city. Irma looks like it's taking a similar path to the one Ivan and Katrina took, and it's looking just as strong, which is not a good sign. I'm hoping that Irma isn't as bad as they're predicting, but it's not looking good.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2017 23:56:37 GMT -5
I'm reading the weather reports and I really hope you Florida peeps are evacuating if you are in the path of this thing. It looks scary.
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Post by robeiae on Sept 6, 2017 7:20:23 GMT -5
Actually, there's no real place to evacuate to right now, aside from peeps in the Keys (evacuations started yesterday for them) and people close to the water (evacuations start today for them).
The cone covers all of South Florida in the latest update and it's still early. People could evacuate to the panhandle, to Georgia or SC, and end up getting creamed there. If the thing goes straight over Lake Okeechobee, people who evacuated to inland Palm Beach County could have it the worst of all.
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Post by Don on Sept 6, 2017 7:52:06 GMT -5
Fellow RVers are hanging out in Lake City until they know which way to jump. I'd be in the same place if I were down there. They're way safer than in south FL, and have time to react still.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2017 9:11:50 GMT -5
Actually, there's no real place to evacuate to right now, aside from peeps in the Keys (evacuations started yesterday for them) and people close to the water (evacuations start today for them). The cone covers all of South Florida in the latest update and it's still early. People could evacuate to the panhandle, to Georgia or SC, and end up getting creamed there. If the thing goes straight over Lake Okeechobee, people who evacuated to inland Palm Beach County could have it the worst of all. Yes, I've seen that. When Sandy was forecast, I warned some running club friends who were notoriously careless about stuff like this. (As someone who grew up in Buffalo blizzard country, I'm the type who is always well stocked with water, canned goods, flashlight, etc.) They scoffed at the notion of a hurricane hitting the New York area particularly hard, and moreover, they noted they were all going to be in a vacation house upstate, not by the ocean. I wrung my hands and explained that hurricanes can shift, that houses and infrastructure up north are not built for hurricanes, etc., to please stock up, etc. Well. They laughed and ignored me. As it happened, the hurricane did shift. Lower Manhattan flooded, was damaged pretty badly and lost power, as did sections of Brooklyn, New Jersey, etc., but where I am on the upper west side, we didn't lose power, and (that part of the city being on higher ground) we didn't flood. I spent a cozy day curled up with a book. But their little vacation home upstate? Flooded. No power. No running water. No way out for days because of road conditions. And there they were, ill-supplied and soggy, with four children under five, two of them in diapers. At least they were safe, but it was a very unpleasant vacation for them. Anyway. Stock up and be safe. Don't forget the scotch.
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Post by Christine on Sept 6, 2017 21:52:46 GMT -5
Run from water; hide from wind.
Evacuations are mandatory for storm surge, for good reason. If you're not in the evac area, and you've got a concrete block structure (preferably built to post-Andrew code specs), bunker down. If you don't, go to a shelter.
Many thanks (and warm fuzzies) for the well wishes. All the best to anyone in the path.
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Post by poetinahat on Sept 6, 2017 23:47:52 GMT -5
I'm in touch with the folks several times a day. No changing plans now; it's hold-your-breath time. All we can do is wait. Fortunately, after years of living on boats, they're au fait with preparing and getting the best weather information.
They're in good spirits, but under no illusions. We assume that we'll lose contact eventually, and that they'll pop up happily on the other side.
Take care, guys.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2017 23:51:10 GMT -5
All you hurricane-affected peeps please post in when you can to let us know you and yours are OK.
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Post by Don on Sept 7, 2017 8:00:32 GMT -5
We're staying well away (in KY) until we know what's up, but we've got relatives on both coasts of FL. If it goes up either coast, we may end up with house guests even though we won't be there. Since we're going back to sell out anyway, our stress level is lower than it might be. We're insured and have most critical possessions with us already, so if the house goes, it goes.
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